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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, July 01, 2015

German Bunds See no GrExit / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Ashraf_Laidi

The Bunds-Euro relationship remains intact, as both continue to converge along the crucial trendline support since the April bottom. With yet another yields bounce off the support today, bunds are further eliminating Grexit scenario for now as does the single currency.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Fed Taper Talk, And The $10 Bill / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since May 2013, Fed taper talk has fluctuated between hot and cold. When it’s hot, the markets anticipate a monetary tightening and prices become volatile.

Recently, speculation about just when the Fed will increase interest rates has reared its head, again. Since early 2013, I have said that the Fed would not act until late 2015. Well, it’s now approaching that date and I think the Fed will act, but later, rather than earlier.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 25, 2015

When a Bond Is Not a Bond / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Mauldin

By Jared Dillian

I don’t know anything about Greece. I actually make it a point not to.

What I’ve found over the course of my career is that the closer people get to an issue, the worse their predictive power is. The forest-for-the-trees phenomenon. Like all the economists who do nothing but watch the Fed, every piece of data, every speech. Their track record in predicting interest rate moves is worse than everyone else’s!

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 25, 2015

When Will US Debt Hit the Wall? / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: DeviantInvestor

As I see it, the following are true:

  1. Debt is increasing far more rapidly than growth in the underlying economies that must support that debt. Although this is also true in Japan, the UK, and Europe, I’ll focus on the US.
  2. Revenue is increasing but less rapidly than debt. This is a problem.
  3. There will come a time when the interest payments on exponentially increasing government debt will exceed what the economy can support. Call that point “hitting the wall.”
  4. Higher interest rates will cause the US economy to “hit the wall” sooner. Lower interest rates merely delay the “day of reckoning.”
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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 25, 2015

European Empire Strikes Back Against Greek Debt Fantasy, Counting Down to GREXIT / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Greece has managed to survive Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday's bank runs that continue on a DAILY basis courtesy of the Euro-zone tax payer forced to step in as the ECB is provides the Greek banks with daily liquidity that totals every single Euro that is being withdrawn from the Greek banks by fearful depositors as Greece continues to count down to debt default on 30th of June. The question is will Greece survive Thursday? Friday? and off course the 30th of June deadline?

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Long Term Interest Rates Are On The Up…What’s Next? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Harry_Dent

The Fed has delayed a rate hike yet again. It seems convinced the economy isn’t ready to survive on higher short-term rates. So we continue to see zero rates to stimulate more economic activity. But today the market is proving just how limited the Fed’s influence really is!

I’ve been warning for years now that there is a limit to how much you can stimulate the economy with free money and zero interest rate policies before the financial drugs no longer work. Eventually, the system breaks down from excessive debt and overexpansion.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

The Greek Debt Crisis Investor Opportunity That's Being Missed / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Money_Morning

Peter Krauth writes: As Greece approaches its next payment deadline, the rhetoric and the stakes are boiling over.

The IMF recently quit negotiations in Brussels, saying it had reached a stalemate.

Then Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said the IMF had "criminal responsibility" for his country's debt crisis.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 22, 2015

Interest Rates Are Rising for All the Wrong Reasons / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street carnival barkers are relishing in the fantasy that the economy has finally achieved escape velocity. Therefore, they accept with alacrity that this is the primary reason why interest rates have started to rise. However, the fact still remains for the first half of 2015 GDP growth will probably be less than 1%.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 20, 2015

The Final Phase Of The U.S. Treasury Bond Market Bubble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

There has been quite a bit of chatter in recent times about the bond bubble bursting. So, have we seen the final high in bond prices or final low in interest rates? No, I don’t believe so but we are indeed approaching the final phase of this bond bubble.

Let’s try to nail down the end of this bull market in bond prices and bear market in bond yields or interest rates by analysing in detail the charts of the 30yr US T-Bond prices and yields. We’ll begin with the big picture yearly chart of bond prices.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, June 20, 2015

The Simplest Way to View the U.S. Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Dr. David Eifrig writes: It has been a wild time for fixed-income investments over the last couple years...

Interest rates are historically low in the U.S. In Europe, rates have spent time in negative territory... meaning investors were willing to take a guaranteed loss.

It can be hard to get a handle on what's happening today in the bond market... never mind where things may be headed tomorrow.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 19, 2015

US. Bonds and Banks / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Alasdair_Macleod

This year has seen some big losses develop in the bond markets, though prices have stabilised in recent days. The chart above is of the yield on the lowest investment risk in ten year maturities. Most other 10-year bonds have seen even sharper rises in yield (i.e. greater price falls). This matters because the banking system is heavily invested in sovereign bonds, not only in the short end of the market where it traditionally invests its liquidity, but also in longer maturities between five and ten years. Furthermore, central banks have become exposed to the same risk through their bond purchases with implications for currency stability, but that is a separate issue.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 19, 2015

Big Fat Greek Bank Run - Greece Banking System Could Collapse Monday 22nd June / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

It appears times up for the Greek Trojan Horse that has been parked outside of the European Central Bank for years, slowly but steadily bleeding the euro-zone dry of now in excess of Euro 360 billion (E240 billion bailout + E120 billion banking system support), as the euro-zone bureaucrats and politicians are finally starting to understand what many have understood for the past 5 years that Greece just cannot function within the Euro-zone, it should never have been allowed to join with bogus economic statistics and subsequently should not have been bailed out again and again and again.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 18, 2015

Bond Bubble - The Fed is Now Officially in VERY Serious Trouble / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Graham_Summers

The market action of the last 24 hours can be summated as thus:

The Fed didn’t raise rates, so the US Dollar fell and all risk rallied hard.

The fact the Fed didn’t raise rates is not important. Interest rates have not been at zero for six years. And the last real period of tightening ended in 2006, nearly a full decade ago.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 18, 2015

GREXIT - Greece Wants to Become Scotland, Seeks Permanent Subsidy from Euro Tax Payers / Interest-Rates / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The Greece debt crisis is marching towards its end game of GREXIT, as the socialist Syriza government continues to up the anti every other day by threatening to blow a hole in the euro-zone through defaulting on overdue debt payments that now total Euro 1.6 billion, having already delayed payment of for several weeks through the use of the euro-zone rule book as Greece demands bailouts forever to permanently service Greece's debt AND finance government deficit spending.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 18, 2015

UK Jobs, BoE, Sterling and Yield Spreads / Interest-Rates / UK Interest Rates

By: Ashraf_Laidi

Today's UK jobs figures powered the pound across the board as average weekly earnings growth (excluding bonuses) shot up to a six-year high of 2.7% in the three months to April y/y, exceeding market expectations for a 2.1% rise. Substracting the 0.1% level of inflation, real earnings come in at 2.6%, also the highest since 2009. If wage gains persist on their upward trend, then wage cost inflation would follow, forcing the gilt market to price more aggressive expectations for a BoE rate hike.

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