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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, May 04, 2015

U.S. Long Bond, an Historic Trading Opportunity? / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

This past week saw a huge swing in interest rates at the long end of the curve with the long bond in particular getting knocked for a loop.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, May 02, 2015

Everyone Piles Into Junk Bonds - The End Is Near? / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: John_Rubino

Six years into a recovery, stocks at record levels, high-end real estate in the stratosphere and debt levels soaring in virtually every public and private sector. Time to scale back and protect those gains, right? Wrong, apparently, for a depressingly obvious reason: Huge sections of the investing public can’t afford to move into cash or even into conservative paper like short-term Treasuries.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Bill Gross on Pimco Hiring Bernanke and Fed Interest Rate Hike 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg Television's Erik Schatzker about today's Federal Open Market Committee statement and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, global bond markets and Pacific Investment Management Co.'s move to hire former Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke as an adviser.


On Pimco hiring Bernanke, Gross said: "Obviously it's a public relations effort….To be able to hook up with Ben Bernanke, I think it is. And that was one of the reasons why we did it with Alan Greenspan [when I was at Pimco], but we found out that there were some very positive benefits to it as well."

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Thoughts from the Frontline: The Third and Final Transformation of Monetary Policy / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: John_Mauldin

The law of unintended consequences is becoming ever more prominent in the economic sphere, as the world becomes exponentially more complex with every passing year. Just as a network grows in complexity and value as the number of connections in that network grows, the global economy becomes more complex, interesting, and hard to manage as the number of individuals, businesses, governmental bodies, and other institutions swells, all of them interconnected by contracts and security instruments, as well as by financial and information flows.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Rush Hour! A Bond Market Traffic Jam / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Harry_Dent

Rodney Johnson writes: In the early 1990s I was a young bond trader with a Wall Street firm. 

The business was not exactly like the movies, but it wasn’t too far off, either. We got to work by 7:00 a.m., set the strategy for the day — “Are we buying more or selling more?” — and then got on the phones. 

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Negative Interest Rates Financial Black Hole / Interest-Rates / International Bond Market

By: GoldSilverWorlds

It feels like not a single soul is worried about the increasing amount of negative interest rates. Ignorance or indifference? This could become a very expensive ordeal.

A black swan event is a metaphor for an enormous problem that develops underneath the surface and then suddenly puts the whole financial system at risk. The financial crisis of 2008 was a black swan event, for example, that slowly developed in the US real estate market where excess had ruled in the years before.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Bill Gross - German 10-Year Bunds Short of a Life Time / Interest-Rates / Germany

By: Bloomberg

Bill Gross of Janus Capital spoke with Bloomberg Television's Alix Steel about yields on the 10-year German bund, his bet against German debt and the European Central Bank's program of quantitative easing.

On shorting the bund, Gross said: "Most investors would probably want to wait for 12 to 18 months because that's when the Eurozone and the ECB's quantitative easing program ends. And one of the reasons for the overvaluation of bunds has to do with Mario Draghi and his program of EUR60 billion a month in terms of buying power. And so you don't want to fight the Fed or the ECB, I suppose, and then getting in early is doing that to a certain extent."

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Interest-Rates

Friday, April 17, 2015

The Consequences of The Fed's Interest Rate Hike / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

Although sometimes we doubt whether the Fed is going to increase interest rates soon, it is worth analyzing the consequences of such a game-changing move. The hike would be the first in nearly a decade. Theoretical effects of rising interest rates are well-known: higher interest rates mean higher borrowing costs (something to consider: if you have a variable rate mortgage and believe that Fed will eventually hike interest rates, think about locking in at current low rates with a fixed-rate mortgage), lower asset prices, reduced risk-premium and a stronger greenback. All of these are relatively bad for the stock market. Higher discount rates mean lower stock prices, while reduced risk-premium makes equities less attractive compared to new issues of bonds. Higher borrowing costs hurt indebted companies, while a stronger greenback negatively affects the exporters and international businesses, which are a significant part of the U.S. stock market. This is why the equity indices were generally falling in March in anticipation of the Fed's hike and surged after the publication of the dovish FOMC statement.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Boom Zero Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Gary_Tanashian

There is so much data flying around out there.  From the Credit data we reviewed yesterday to weakening manufacturing and exports to employment up nicely one month and down big the next, to frisky consumers (the economy’s ‘back end’, putting it nicely) out there confidently living it up.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Cost of Negative Bank Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2015

By: BATR

So you thought that the unimaginable could not happen. The signal is heard loud and clear. Keeping your money in a fiduciary account will not only earn no interest; there will be an actual cost of parking your funds in a bank relationship. The madness that has engulfed the financial sector is preparing to escalate the systematic looting of saved capital. Ponder the consequences of negative bank rates and ask, what exactly can anyone do or where can they place their money for safekeeping. The first objective of entrusting your funds to a financial institution is to have the ability to obtain access to the return of your capital.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, April 07, 2015

U.S. Interest Rates - How the Federal Reserve Has Completely Fooled Us for Years / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: DailyWealth

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: We must be idiots...

The Federal Reserve has completely fooled us for more than six years...

"Higher interest rates are just around the corner," they tell us today.

The thing is, they've told us that over and over – since the Fed first cut interest rates to zero back in 2008.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2015

3 Sigma Extremes In the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DeviantInvestor

US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close.  That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change.  This is a huge move.  What does it mean?

The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990.  Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever.  This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets.  Several $Trillion in European sovereign debt currently “pays” negative interest – an extreme condition.  The Bank of Japan has aggressively purchased Japanese government bonds as well as Japanese stocks – another extreme example of a bond bubble.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Did The Fed Just Admit to Deep Uncertainty About Our Financial Security In Retirement? / Interest-Rates / Pensions & Retirement

By: Dan_Amerman

Generally speaking, the chairperson of the Federal Reserve is treated by the mainstream financial media as being the very paragon of respectability. If the Fed says it - then the voice of economic authority has spoken, and we need to listen carefully.

Yet, recent comments by Janet Yellen have instead made her a source of "controversial" economic ideas, with some financial reporters and their editors apparently feeling a duty to protect their reading audience - and let them know this is not acceptable economic thinking, but rather is "far outside the mainstream."

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Iceland Ponders Radical Banking Plan to Eliminate Fractional Reserve Lending / Interest-Rates / Global Financial System

By: Mike_Shedlock

I have long railed against fractional reserve lending, duration mismatches (e.g. banks issuing 2-year CDs and lending money for 15-year mortgages), bank's ability to lend money into existence, and deposit insurance.

Fractional reserve lending allows banks to lend out a near infinite amount of credit with essentially no backing. Money inevitable creates asset bubbles, but as long as the bubbles are expanding it appears the system is solvent.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Bernanke Double Tap / Interest-Rates / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Brady_Willett

The promotion of 'risk taking' during Bernanke's tenure was, without question, done at the immediate expense of traditional 'savings'. Deal with it Bernanke.

Former Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, began his new 'blog' yesterday with a dandy entitled 'Why Are Interest Rates So Low?' Given that only those with a financial acumen would read a blog from Bernanke, the silliness offered was remarkable. Nevertheless, here goes:

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