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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, March 30, 2015

Where the U.S. Economy Is Heading According to Buffett / Economics / US Economy

By: Investment_U

Marc Lichtenfeld writes: Many investors like to follow the “smart money.” And it doesn’t get much smarter than Warren Buffett. So it’s worth examining what stocks Buffett is buying and selling, not just for individual names, but to gauge his overall comfort with the market.

In the quarter ending in December, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK) sold all of its shares in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP). It also reduced its holdings in National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV) by about 18%. A lot of Buffett watchers have interpreted his reduced holdings in energy as bad news for the industry.

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Economics

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Why We Need Deflation and Higher Interest Rates / Economics / Deflation

By: MISES

John P. Cochran writes: The Fed is seemingly slightly out of step with other central bankers as it recently hinted at possible future rate hikes in the official announcement following its March 20, 2015 meeting. But as many commentators have recognized, Janet Yellen, a strong proponent of Keynesian more-inflation-as-cure-for-unemployment policy, later downplayed the significance of the announcement. She was careful to indicate that rates would stay low for the near future and when (and if) rate increases begin, they will be measured. The Fed, like central bankers elsewhere, stays committed to a 2 percent inflation target as it continues a policy driven by a fear of deflation, a fear that is not supported by either good economic theory or economic history properly interpreted.

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Economics

Friday, March 27, 2015

Deflation Watch: Key U.S. Economic Measures Turn South / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

A developing deflationary trend hinders the economic "recovery"

Lots of media stories say the Federal Reserve is weighing signs of economic strength to see if the economy is ripe for higher interest rates.

In truth, economic weakness has appeared on various fronts.

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Economics

Friday, March 27, 2015

BEA Leaves Q4 2014 U.S. GDP Growth Essentially Unchanged at 2.22% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

In their third estimate of the US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was growing at a +2.22% annualized rate, effectively unchanged (+0.04%) from the +2.18% previously reported and down -2.74% from the growth rate reported for the prior quarter.

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Economics

Friday, March 27, 2015

Brazil Economy Victim of Vulgar Keynesianism / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: MISES

Antony P. Mueller writes: All Keynesian roads lead to stagflation. That was the case in Europe and in the United States in the 1970s when both stagnation and inflation hit the economies at the same time. Currently, this is the case in Brazil.

Since coming into power in 2003, the Brazilian labor government has religiously implemented the economic policy doctrine of growth by spending. Now, the country has fallen into stagnation with a recession looming while inflation is on the rise. All economic indicators flash red lights: from economic growth to inflation and the exchange rate, from productivity to investment and industrial production.

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Economics

Thursday, March 26, 2015

The Crude Oil Price Crash and China Economic Slow Down / Economics / China Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

This is another essay from friend and regular contributor of The Automatic Earth, Euan Mearns at Energy Matters.

One comment on my part: Euan says ‘This has lead to speculation that weak global demand, stemming from masked economic woes, may also be playing a key role.‘ I don’t think the use of the term ‘speculation’ is appropriate here, because it seems overly obvious that China’s economic slowdown has played a major role in the oil price crash (and continues to do so). Even if there’s no ‘scientific’ proof, and even if the main media narrative remains OPEC overproduction and the inane meme of the cartel’s refusal to cut production, it certainly goes way beyond mere speculation.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

We’re at the Dawn of a “New Energy Age” / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Dr. Kent Moors writes: Recently I received a very thoughtful comment from a subscriber.

In response to “The Truth About Iran’s Impact on Oil Prices,” Ramon had this to say about playing “the Iran card:”

Dr. Moors,

I find your updates very helpful in cutting through the chatter. After spending a large amount of time and resources trying to understand petroleum related energy, I developed this question.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

A Very Weak U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

For years, the government has been manipulating its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.

Jim Clifton of Gallup finally couldn't stand it anymore and wrote a terrific op-ed on the subject. Here is the meat of it:

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Economics

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Zero UK CPI Inflation Rate Prompts Deflation Danger Propaganda For Fresh Money Printing / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Zero 0.0% CPI inflation not seen for 50 years as the continuation of the consequences of the collapse in crude oil prices that continue to stagnate below $50. And that despite falling unemployment wages are being suppressed as a continuing consequences of out of control immigration as workers continue to flood into the UK from across the economically depressed euro-zone. Whilst the mainstream press continues to warn of the dangers of outright deflation as CPI is expected to nudge below 0% and describe how this is bad for the economy as people put off consuming today in the anticipation of lower prices tomorrow. Meanwhile RPI, which is the closest thing to real inflation slid to 1% (1.1%) and is set against the real demand adjusted UK inflation rate of 1.5%.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Japan Short Term Gains And Long Term Disaster / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

About a month ago, Japan’s giant GPIF pension fund announced it had started doing in Q4 2014, what PM Abe had long asked it to: shift a large(r) portion of its investment portfolio from bonds to stocks. No more safe assets for the world’s largest pension fund, or a lot less at least, but risky ones. For Abe this promises the advantage of an economy that looks healthier than it actually is, while for the fund it means that the returns on its investments could be higher than if it stuck to safe assets. Not a word about the dangers, not a word about why pensions funds were, for about as long as they’ve been in existence, obliged by law to only hold AAA assets. This is from February 27:

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Economics

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

U.S. Economy Still on Life Support - What Your Governments Hiding From You... / Economics / US Economy

By: EWI

Dear investor,

For years, the government has manipulated its unemployment statistics to line up with its claim that the economy has recovered strongly.

But as a student of the markets, you know that already.

So here's something you may not know ...

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Economics

Monday, March 23, 2015

U.S. Economy and the Illusion of Prosperity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

President Obama and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen have recently been crowing about improving economic conditions in the U.S.  Unemployment is down to 5.5% and economic growth in 2014 hit 2.4%.

Journalists and economists point to this improvement as proof that quantitative easing was effective. They seem to have political blinders on. The boom is artificial and has been built by adding debt on top of excessive debt.  Total household debt increased 2.5 % in 2014 – the highest level since 2010. Mortgage loans increased 1.5%, student loans jumped by 6.6%, and auto loans swelled a hefty 9.6%.  The improving auto sales are based on a bubble of sub- prime borrowers. Auto sales have been brisk because of a surge in loans to individuals with credit scores below 640. Auto loans to individuals with strong credit scores, above 720, have barely budged.

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Economics

Sunday, March 22, 2015

Recent Economic Data Shows the Good Side of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: MISES

Edin Mujagic writes: The Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England repeatedly tell us that deflation is extremely dangerous for an economy. Central bankers, most economists, and the media speak of deflation as one of the greatest disasters that can strike an economy.

It is stunning then, given the apparent importance of the subject — and the possible collateral damage of pro-inflation policies — that few seem to bother to ask the deeper, fundamental question: does the historical data show that deflation is actually a terrible thing? The data suggests that it is not. In fact, looking at recent GDP, inflation, and employment data, one could even say that a shot of deflation is what many economies need. Let us take a look at the recent real-life examples.

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Economics

Thursday, March 19, 2015

European QE Creates Distortions in World Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: John_Browne

In the closing months of 2014, Germany faced a difficult dilemma. Although its own economy was holding up well, incoming data showed that the rest of the Eurozone was rapidly slipping into recession. As a result, the calls for the European Central Bank (ECB) to unleash its own quantitative easing campaign grew louder. However, the policy had always been unpopular in Germany, both among high financial officials and rank and file Germans, where a strong euro has been prized. But in the end, Berlin was 'persuaded' to drop its efforts to forestall a QE campaign that everyone else in the world seemed to want.

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Economics

Thursday, March 19, 2015

China's Deflationary Economic Bust and Beyond: Anne Stevenson-Yang Presentation / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Anne Stevenson-Yang graciously made her presentation on China 2015 Risks - Deflationary Bust and Beyond publicly available.

I wanted to embed the document but it got distorted a bit, so please click on the above link to download the document.

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