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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Children & Retirees: 7.5 Million Reasons Our Economy Isn’t Growing / Economics / Demographics

By: Harry_Dent

Rodney Johnson writes: A few weeks ago my lovely wife and younger daughter, who is still in high school, traveled to Texas for a birthday party. It wasn’t just any party, it was the centennial celebration for my wife’s great aunt. 

More amazing than this lady’s longevity is the fact she’s not alone.  She and her two sisters (my wife’s grandmother and her two great aunts) all live together, ranging in age from 91 to 100.  We call it “the house of little old ladies.” 

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Economics

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

Characteristics of Extremely Over-Indebted Economies / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2015

By: John_Mauldin

I think it was almost two years ago that I was in Cyprus. Cyprus had just come through its crisis and was still in shell shock. I was there to get a feel for what it was like, and a number of my readers had courteously arranged for me to meet with all sorts of people and do a few presentations. A local group arranged for me to speak at the lecture hall of the Central Bank of Cyprus in Nicosia.

There were about 50 people in the room. I was busily working on Code Red at the time and had money flows, quantitative easing, and currency wars at the front of my brain. As part of my presentation, I talked about how countries would seek to use currency devaluation in order to gain an advantage over other countries – that we were getting ready to enter an era of currency wars, which would be disguised as monetary policy trying to create economic growth. Which is exactly what we have today. Every now and then I get a few things right.

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Economics

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Michel Chevalier’s Case Against the Patent System / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Louis Rouanet writes: Michel Chevalier (1806–1879) was a very influential French economist during the second half of the nineteenth century. He is still widely known in France for being the architect of the Cobden-Chevalier Treaty of 1860 which was the free-trade agreement between France and Great Britain. Michel Chevalier is, however, less known for his major contribution to the intellectual property debate.1 Contrary to Jean Baptiste Say, Gustave de Molinari, and many other French economists, Chevalier fiercely opposed the patent system. As Fritz Machlup remarked: “Among French economists, Michel Chevalier was probably the most emphatic in the joint antagonism to tariffs and patents, declaring that both ‘stem from the same doctrine and result in the same abuses.’”

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Economics

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Inflation, Central Banks, and Business Cycles / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Jonathan Newman writes: The word “inflation” means different things to different people. One popular conception of inflation focuses on prices  —  all prices, actually. For these people, including some economists, “inflation” means a rise in the general price level, i.e., the goods and services we buy have higher price tags.

The other conception of inflation focuses on the money supply. Economists with this focus think of inflation as an increase in the amount of money in the economy. We’ll see that viewing inflation as a rise in prices can be misleading and ambiguous especially compared to viewing inflation as an increase in the money supply.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Greece Debt Default and Drachma By End of April? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: GoldCore

- Greek government to withhold IMF payments according to the FT
- Prime Minister Tsipras denies preparing for default according to Reuters
- Government funds to run out by end of month
- Default would likely lead to “Grexit” and return to drachma
- EU may not withstand uncertainty surrounding break-up of monetary union
- Concern could trigger derivatives crisis and ‘Lehman moment’
- Like frogs in a pot of water that is very slowly coming to the boil

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Economics

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

China Margin Debt, Trading Accounts, Construction Equipment / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

In response to my April 1, post China Margin Debt Soars to Record 1 Trillion Yuan; Another Central Bank Sponsored Bubble I received an email from reader Nicolas.

He writes ...

Hello Mish

Happy Monday. I find your output excellent an I hope that you are flattered that you are followed by private banks is Switzerland.

Quick question on your last note; please can you tell me what (Bloomberg/Reuters) code you use for Chinese Margin debt? i.e. where can I cross-reference the Trillion Yuan figure you quote?

Best regards and many thanks,

Nicolas

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2015

The U.S. Economic Recovery: True or False? / Economics / US Economy

By: Arkadiusz_Sieron

The stronger than expected February's job market report fueled expectations that the Fed will increase interest rates sooner rather than later. We believed that market reaction was a bit exaggerated, and suggested in the Gold News Monitor not taking the hike for granted. The U.S. recovery is not as strong as it is commonly believed (as it was confirmed by the downgraded Fed's economic projections) and there are many downside risks, such as Greece's crisis, stubbornly low inflation, sluggish wage growth, the Chinese and global slowdown and too strong a greenback, which may stall the Fed's hike.

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Economics

Monday, April 13, 2015

New Credit Crunch Underway: Can Recession Be Far Behind? / Economics / Recession 2015

By: Mike_Shedlock

Credit Crunch Underway

Last week, Alexander Giryavets of Dynamika Capital L.L.C. pinged me with an article he had written on Recessionary Level in Credit Conditions.

His article was based on data from the March Credit Managers' Index by the National Association of Credit Management. The report is pretty damning.

First, let's take a look at some NACM snips. Emphasis in italics is mine. Following the NACM snips and some NACM explanations, we will return to a chart from Giryavets.

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Economics

Sunday, April 12, 2015

BLS Economic Propaganda, Truth – The Cure for Cognitive Dissonance / Economics / Propaganda

By: James_Quinn

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ― George Orwell

Every time the BLS puts out their monthly propaganda report on the wonderful state of the U.S. jobs market and states with a straight face the unemployment rate is a measly 5.5%, their corporate mouthpieces in the mainstream cheerleader media regurgitate the fake numbers and urge you to buy stocks. The millionaire talking heads on CNBC and the corrupt bought off politicians in D.C. make broad sweeping declarations about economic recovery, strong job growth, GDP advancement, record highs in the stock market, and soaring consumer confidence.

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Economics

Saturday, April 11, 2015

Why the American Consumer Will Never Be Back / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

That title may be a bit much, granted, because never is a very long time. I might instead have said “The American Consumer Won’t Be Back For A Very Long Time”. Still, I simply don’t see any time in the future that would see Americans start spending again at a rate anywhere near what would be required for an economic recovery. Looks pretty infinity and beyond to me.

However, that is by no means a generally accepted point of view in the financial press. There’s reality, and then there’s whatever it is they’re smoking, and never the twain shall meet. Admittedly, my title may be a bit provocative, but in my view not nearly as provocative, if not offensive, as Peter Coy’s at Bloomberg, who named his latest effort “US Consumers Will Open Their Wallets Soon Enough”.

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

How an Artificial Economy Collapses Organically  / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

One of the biggest news stories, almost too perfect not to be timed, was released on a day when markets closed early: Good Friday. 

Conveniently not factored into major world markets was last week's horrible jobs report.

From the timing of the news, to the revisions and the real story, these numbers tell about the underlying economy. It says everything one needs to know about the broken monetary system. 

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

Confusion over US Unemployment Data / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer. It is however much more complex, particularly in a large country like the United States, whose potential labour force is estimated to be 250,080,000 across all 50 states plus Washington DC. Of this total 101,479,000 are not currently employed, a ratio of over 40%, and of these only 8,575,000 are deemed to be actually unemployed. The relevant figures are here.

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Economics

Friday, April 10, 2015

Euro-zone Crisis - Germany’s Trade Surplus Is a Problem / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: John_Mauldin

In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen their relative wages fall and deflation become a problem. Greece is the poster child.

The north-south imbalance in the Eurozone is still a problem today. In this week’s Outside the Box, I highlight a recent blog on that topic from none other than former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. He first published his blog on March 30, and it appears he is going to post to three times a week. It’s a very thoughtful commentary, and I will admit to having subscribed. He is going back to his “professor” style and communicates very clearly.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 08, 2015

Economists in Glass Houses / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

For many economists, the chicken and egg question is, which came first, consumption or production? What drives growth? Let’s continue with our series on debt, in which I have been contrasting my views with those of Paul Krugman.

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Economics

Monday, April 06, 2015

Portrait of the Classical Gold Standard / Economics / Global Financial System

By: MISES

Marcia Christoff-Kurapovna writes: "The world that disappeared in 1914 appeared, in retrospect, something like our picture of Paradise," wrote the economist Cecil Hirsch in his June 1934 review of R.W. Hawtrey’s classic, The Art of Central Banking (1933). Hirsch bemoaned the loss of the far-sighted restraint that had once prevailed among the "bankers' banks" of the West, concluding that modern times "had failed to attain the standard of wisdom and foresight that prevailed in the 19th century."

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