Analysis Topic: Currency Market AnalysisThe analysis published under this topic are as follows.
Friday, February 12, 2016
Canadian Dollar Now Even Less of a Haven from US Dollar Collapse Than Before / Currencies / Canadian $
In 2011, we posted an article entitled “The Canadian Dollar is No Haven from a US Dollar Collapse.” The point of the article was that Canada had almost no gold reserves and the only thing backing the Canadian dollar was the US dollar.
Canadians were quite smug, back then, with the Canadian dollar trading above par with the US dollar and we wanted to remind them that not only would the Canadian dollar not be a haven from a US dollar collapse, but the loonie would collapse before the US dollar, since nothing is backing it but the US dollar and Canada had no gold (amongst many other reasons).Read full article... Read full article...
Thursday, February 11, 2016
Trends in many of the financial markets have started to reverse course over the last few weeks with a few notable examples that have yet to be fully discussed. Some of the more closely watched examples here include things like gold and oil, which have come off sharply from their recent lows. But there are other examples that should be on the radar of UK traders, as the British Pound (GBP) is making some interesting reversals in its own right.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, February 08, 2016
This article reviews whether the US is potentially sliding towards an economic recession, as defined by NBER.
- The St. Louis FED publishes a monthly report that presents the output from its smoothed US recession probabilities model.
- The model covers the period from June 1967 to the present day, and during this period there have been seven US recessions, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
- The FED model has three false positives and zero false negatives. All three false positives were within two years of a US recession starting, so they can be considered as early indicators of a recession rather than false positives.
Friday, February 05, 2016
An opinion by ZeroHedge on this morning’s payroll report caught my attention. They opine, “The most obvious reaction to the "great" drop in the unemployment rate and "huge miss" in payrolls is a rise (yes rise) in rate-hike odds for 2016. This appears to be why the Dollar is spiking and bonds, stocks, crude, gold and everything else is being sold...”
Unfortunately the USD retracement is losing momentum at 97.24, just above mid-Cycle support/resistance at 96.99.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
George Soros’ successful bet against the British pound back in 1992 remains one of financial history’s epic tales.
The short version of the story begins with Britain linking its currency, the pound, to the German deutschmark via the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). But Britain’s inflation rate was higher than Germany’s, which created a growing mismatch between the currencies’ real value.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
GBPUSD bounced nicely to the highs earlier which we thought its going to be wave 5 of C), but a quick reversal down from 1.4443 high suggests that wave 4 can still be unfolding as a triangle. That said, upside may not be done yet for cable, so be aware of 1.4500 before market turns down with new impulse. Leg down from here and daily close beneath 1.4317 will indicate that wave C) is done anyway. Generally speaking, new reversal can be in the cards soon, but latest price move suggests that we are not there yet.Read full article... Read full article...
Sunday, January 31, 2016
Many years from now, the people of Japan will tell their children and grandchildren of a time long since past when interest rates were negative and you actually had to pay the bank to give them money. The kids will go "Wow" in amazement and disbelief.
The Bank of Japan announced this exact thing the past week and this is the present we currently live in and is likely to be the case for the foreseeable future. This should see the USDJPY now trade higher.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 29, 2016
Correction completed or no? That's the question I am wondering while looking at GBPUSD. Firstly I assumed that we will see higher corrective for blue wave 4-cricled, because of the degree that I am tracking on a daily chart. I thought we may even see 1.4560 level, but todays decline put some doubt in that view. That said, I prepared two wave counts now, and will be ready to go with the bearish one if we get a daily close beneath 1.4172. Then I would look for a retest of 1.4080 early in February. But until then wave four can still reach higher levels with sub-wave C) if consider possible flat now in wave B). This is now time for patience, as battle between bulls and bears appears undecided.Read full article... Read full article...
Friday, January 29, 2016
Learn how protective stops keep you on the right side the trend
On a recent vacation to the Yucatan, my friend decided to get certified in scuba diving.
I, on the other hand, prefer breathing my air above water! But I did tag along with her to one of the classes, anyway. She learned how to handle and interpret all the various diver gauges: gas pressure, submersive pressure, depth, and on.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 25, 2016
USDJPY is falling sharply and very aggressively towards the levels of August of 2015, but it's still too soon to confirm if wave four will be a triangle or a flat. It can be both as long as wave A) holds, but we still think that sooner or later bears will slow down and that price will rally in three legs; either from here or from around 114.00. So for now, trend is still down, but key for bulls will be a bullish reversal in five waves on lower time frames. Only then we can start looking immediately higher again.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 25, 2016
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Friday, January 22, 2016
By Nick Giambruno
The chaos that one day will ensue from our 35-year experiment with worldwide fiat money will require a return to money of real value. We will know that day is approaching when oil-producing countries demand gold, or its equivalent, for their oil rather than dollars or euros. The sooner the better. - Ron Paul
Ron Paul is calling for the end of the petrodollar system. This system is one of the main reasons the U.S. dollar is the world’s premier reserve currency.Read full article... Read full article...
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
The dollar is "crawling" along its 60 dma. When it breaks and closes below the drop into the intermediate cycle low will begin.Read full article... Read full article...
Monday, January 18, 2016
Forex trading works due to the value of a currency being determined by its relative value in comparison to another, you in currency pairings for this exact reason. These pairs are made up of a base currency (the first one) and a quote currency (the second). For example, with the GBP/USD currency pair the GB Pound is the base and the US Dollar is the quote. The pair shows how much of the quote currency is needed to purchase one unit of the base currency.
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Transcript Excerpt: January 12 2016 Tuesday afternoon here in london 330 London time or 1030 New
York Times just a quick video on the british Pounds British Pound is part of
the SDR basket and I spoke earlier late last year when the Chinese you one was
admitted into the SDR basket that the pound took the brunt of the hey don't
exactly remember the percentage in percentage terms how much the British
Pound lost in terms of the SDR basket to put a link to that video below at the
time though I said it should be bad for the pound and lo and behold the pound
continues to drop by is getting precipitous at the moment in my opinion
you know all the talk is about emerging market currencies devaluing the you want
to value when but you hardly ever hear anything here in the UK the mainstream
that are British Pound is actually being stealthy and that can't be good for our