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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

FOMC Policy Statement, Fed on Watch-and-Wait Mode / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

The Fed is essentially on a watch-and-wait mode.  The asset purchase plan of $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities, known as QE2, was left intact and the program is set to expire in June 2011.  The Fed made small modifications to the November policy statement.  The pace of economic recovery is now seen as "insufficient to bring down unemployment" vs. a more amorphous description in November that output and employment conditions are "slow."  The Fed upgraded its view about consumer spending and depicted it as "increasing at a moderate pace," while in November, the Fed saw consumer spending as "increasing gradually."  The retail sales report of November (see discussion below) justifies this modification.  The Fed indicated in November that "housing starts continue to be depressed," which is now revised to read as the "housing sector continues to be depressed."

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 13, 2010

December 14 FOMC Meeting, Interest Rate Surprises Are Unlikely / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe last FOMC meeting for 2010 is likely to end without any surprises. The Fed is expected to maintain the current band (0%-25%) for the federal funds rate. There has been significant criticism about the $600 billion purchase of Treasury securities to provide an extra lift to economic activity and bring about a lower unemployment rate. The Fed projected lower interest rates and a depreciation of the dollar as a result of the second round of purchases of securities, termed as QE2. However, yields have risen since the announcement of QE2 on November 3. The 10-year Treasury note yield closed at 3.32% on December 10, the highest since June 10, 2010 (see Chart 1). Mortgage rates have risen close to 40bps since November 3 (see Chart 1).

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 13, 2010

Higher Long-Term U.S. Treasury Yields Ahead / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The eventuality of higher longer-term Treasury yields in the weeks and months ahead appears to be relentlessly marching towards us now. Time to start monitoring the UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TBT) for the next entry window on the long side.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 13, 2010

Wall Street Gives Uncle Sam Too Much Credit / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Michael_Pento

Despite the fact that the S&P is up over 80% in the last 21 months, US financial firms are currently tripping over each other in their zeal to raise their S&P 500 and GDP targets for 2011. JPMorgan's chief US equities strategist, Thomas Lee, came out on December 3rd with a target of 1425 on the S&P for 2011, which would be a 15 percent gain. Barclays Capital last Thursday released a 1420 estimate. Not to be outdone, Goldman Sachs also recently released its forecast, and it sees a more-than-20 percent increase next year, to 1450. Meanwhile, PIMCO's idea of a "new normal" has translated into a 2011 GDP forecast raised from 2-2.5% to 3-3.5% due to "massive" government stimulus.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, December 11, 2010

European Monetary System Crisis, Euro Zone on the Edge of Collapse / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Bob_Chapman

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBelieve it or not the euro zone and European Union crisis is still in the formative stages.

The bailout packages arranged for Greece and Ireland are not to bail out those two countries, but to bail out the European banks that lent to them and bought their bonds when it was imprudent to do so. They knew, because they control the governments that the public of the solvent governments would bail them out. Thus, the governments of Ireland and Greece with Portugal and Spain to follow will be showered with an Anglo-American style bailout.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, December 10, 2010

U.S. Interest Rates Surge as Fed, Congress Crush Debtholders / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Larson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWashington, 0. The bond market, 1.

That’s the score folks, in case you haven’t been keeping track. The Federal Reserve Chairman said his $600 billion “QE2″ program would lower interest rates. Instead, rates have done nothing but rise since investors got wind of the Treasury buying plan.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 09, 2010

How a Dull Investment can be a Great Investment / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI spent my childhood discussing the stock market at the dinner table. My dad was a stock broker, and he loved to "tell the story" of the stocks he recommended to customers -- a story that included critical information about the industry, the products, earnings, and the outlook for the future. Most children might find it dull, but I was mesmerized.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, December 09, 2010

U.S. Treasury Bond Market’s Perception of Economic Recovery Path is Strongly Bullish, But Mind the Hurdles / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe 10-year Treasury note yield has climbed from a recent low of 2.41% (October 6-8, 2010) to 3.27% as of this writing.  The 86 bps increase in yield in a short span reflects the market's assessment of likely improvements in economic conditions during the months ahead and the impact of a projected increase in supply of Treasury debt as a result of the compromise tax deal President Obama announced yesterday. 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Bernanke Will continue Printing Money as the Federal Deficit Explodes Higher / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Claus_Vogt

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe “grand compromise” between the Obama administration and Congressional Republicans to extend the Bush era tax cuts will have two extremely severe repercussions:

First, it means that the federal deficit will EXPLODE beyond the worst estimates of the most pessimistic deficit prognosticators. And in response, interest rates are already soaring, with 10-year Treasury yields jumping nearly a quarter of a point just yesterday!

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

What's Up At the Fed? / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The last week was a full Federal Reserve soap opera, full of events and action that should appear suspicious to most anyone. 

First, the Federal Reserve complies with a request to release information about its emergency lending and monetary policy actions during the financial crisis, at which point it is found the Fed was willing to hand cash to just about anyone.  Next, Bernanke comes out on 60 Minutes, a very popular and watched program, to discuss quantitative easing three.  Has the chairman gone mad? 

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Japan Collection Call on U.S. Debtors / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: David_Galland

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHello, is this Japan I'm speaking to?

Yes. (tentative). May I ask who's calling?

It's the ACME collection agency. We're calling today because of your outstanding obligations.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, December 08, 2010

Debunking Bernanke’s QE Not Money Printing Myth / Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn his interview with “60 Minutes”, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested it is a myth that quantitative easing implies printing money. With all due respect, Mr. Bernanke, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is a duck!

Bernanke argues his policies do not amount to printing money, as neither currency in circulation, nor money supply has increased. This analogy is a bit like giving a loaded gun to a kid, then telling your friends that it’s not a deadly weapon because the shots that have been fired haven’t killed anyone. Granted, we are exaggerating here because, after all, it’s only money we are talking about. Yet, printing money may destroy one’s purchasing power and thus one’s life’s savings.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 06, 2010

The Federal Reserve's Secret Set of Books Hiding $9 Trillion Off Balance Sheet Transactions / Interest-Rates / Central Banks

By: Richard_Daughty

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI have been grudgingly getting to work every day and on-time since, unfortunately, it looks like my incompetence, stupidity and sheer lazy worthlessness is going to produce another losing quarter, and the rumor is that the Board of Directors is looking for heads to roll.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, December 06, 2010

Large Brokerage Firms Continue Pumping Collapsing Municipal Bonds Onto the Public / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Fred_Sheehan

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUndaunted by falling municipal bond prices, rising yields, and withdrawal of funds, research reports by large brokerage firms still mollify the majority of clients and fund managers with numbers and assertions: "General obligation bonds do not default." "The general obligation default rate is 0.01%." "Most states are required by law to balance their budgets." To these and other airtight arguments in the muni marketing kit, the proper articulation of doubt may be expressed as: "Yeah, Yeah, Yeah." Or, one might read "Possible Misunderstandings by Municipalities and Their Bonds."

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, December 05, 2010

Fed's Global Pawnshop Hands Out $9 Trillion in Short-term Loans to 18 Financial Institutions / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis Bailouts

By: Global_Research

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Articlemybudget360.com writes: Federal Reserve made $9 trillion in short-term loans to only 18 financial institutions. Since 2000 the US dollar has fallen by 33 percent. The hidden cost of the bailouts.

The Federal Reserve released a stunning report showing the details of bailouts that occurred during the peak of the credit crisis.  They won’t call it “bailouts” but giving money when others won’t is exactly that.  What the report shows is that the Fed operated as a global pawnshop taking in practically anything the banks had for collateral.&

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