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Analysis Topic: Interest Rates and the Bond Market

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, June 28, 2010

Weak Economic Data Sends Treasury Bond Prices Higher / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market was stronger last week as bonds rallied with help from disturbingly weak fundamental data and a fading equity market.  The final release of the first quarter GDP figure was revised down from the first cut of 3.5% to 3.0% on the second look and finally to 2.7% on last week’s figure.  Honestly it is beyond me how consensus can still be looking for 3-4% growth during the second half of 2010 in the US and Canada!  From my vantage point we will be lucky to print a positive number by the last quarter on either side of the border.  The front end of the economy is in shambles, the Fed is out of easing bullets as it is already at 0% and the newly found fiscal responsibility across the globe is certainly highly advisable but its short term impact will most likely be quite painful.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 25, 2010

U.S. Treasury Bond TLT ETF Pressuring Resistance / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Mike_Paulenoff

The iShares 20+ Yr T-Bond ETF (NYSE: TLT) continues to trade in a high-level coil-type pattern that is putting increasing upward pressure on the 100.00 resistance plateau amidst deteriorating economic data, an uncertain business environment, and defensive equity markets.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 25, 2010

When It Comes to Increasing Aggregate Demand, What's Fiscal Policy without Monetary Policy? / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Not much. Suppose the central government decides to increase spending without increasing taxes. Where do the funds come from? From entities who are willing to lend. If those lending entities are the nonbank public, for the most part, all this does is transfer spending power to the central government from these entities. Net, net, total spending in the economy does not increase. Rather, there is just a change in the distribution of spending.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 24, 2010

U.S. Treasury Bonds Look Attractive / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Guy_Lerner

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are two trades in this market: the risk trade and the non-risk trade. The risk trade is in equities and all the other assets, like commodities, real estate and emerging markets, that have become highly correlated to equities. The non-risk trade is in bonds. This works when equities don't. With the bounce in equities sputtering (but not having rolled over yet), Treasury bonds are looking attractive.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Fed’s Next Move is to Ease U.S. Interest Rates / Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates

By: Michael_Pento

The FOMC meets today to discuss their record-low interest rate policy. The announcement of their decision will be released on Wednesday. While no increase in interest rates is expected, there is little doubt amongst investors that the future direction for the central bank’s target rate will be up. In fact, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig has repeatedly expressed his desire for an increase in overnight lending rates to 1 percent from the current zero-0.25 percent range by the end of summer.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, June 21, 2010

Flat U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Levente_Mady

The bond market was flat and choppy again last week as bonds held their ground even as equities continued to rally.  A little less than a month ago we reported that bonds became 2.5 standard deviations expensive to stocks.  That is no longer the case as that relationship is closer to neutral now due mostly to the rally in the stock market.  The fundamental news remains quite supportive, as most of the data points to non-existent inflation and a slowdown in economic activity.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 17, 2010

U.S. Fights Global Debt Crisis Hangover: Getting Drunk in the Process? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Axel_Merk

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleTo understand how the ongoing global credit crisis may evolve, let’s look at some cultural and structural considerations. Last decade, despite being told that there may be no money to fund retirement, American consumers ramped up vast amounts of credit card debt; the European consumer, in contrast, reined in spending. Presently, European countries have recognized their debt burdens and are committed to austerity measures – contrast this with the U.S. approach: despite Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Bernanke’s warnings about unsustainable deficits, policy makers in the U.S. have proposed a $200 billion mini-stimulus package, advising the world to stimulate consumption now, with little apparent concern over future deficit implications.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Spain's Financial System on the Verge of Collapse or Speculators Are Exaggerating Banks Vulnerability / Interest-Rates / Credit Crisis 2010

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Simpkins writes: Somebody is bluffing.

Either Spain's financial system is on the verge of a breakdown, or hedge funds and speculators are exaggerating the vulnerability of Spain's banks to capitalize on short-selling Eurozone securities.

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Vanguard 10-Yr U.S. Treasury Yield Interest Rate Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Richard_Shaw

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAccording to Vanguard projections (made 3/29/10 for, AAII Journal, June 2010, page 7) 10-yr Treasury rates are implied by the current yield curve to be 4.4%, 5.2% and 5.6% by 1 year, 3 years and 5 years into the future. The current rate (June 15) is 3.32%.

They don't do a great job of explaining just how they got to those projections, but given their huge bond asset base, we think they should be presumed to be well qualified to make the projections.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

U.S. Debt Bomb Detonation Expedited by 5 Years / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Michael_Pento

A Treasury Department report to Congress last week stated that total U.S. debt will climb to $19.6 trillion by 2015, as opposed to the 2019 date previously estimated. Treasury also estimated that total U.S. debt will top 13.6 trillion this year and would rise to 102% of GDP by 2015 as well. And most astonishingly, the report projected that the publicly traded debt (debt excluding intragovernmental obligations) would rise to $14 trillion by 2015, up from last year’s debt of “just” $7.5 trillion.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Is There Really a Debt Crisis? / Interest-Rates / Global Debt Crisis

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the most debated topics today concerns the level of debt as it concerns consumers, corporations and governments. Government debt has commanded a particularly large share of the limelight in recent weeks. Among those who are concerned that debt levels have reached "crisis" proportions, there's seems to be a consensus that the debt balloon has reached well night the bursting point, and further, we have reached the point of no return when it comes to the servicing of the debt.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 11, 2010

In-Disposable Income and The Long Road out of Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: HRA_Advisory

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Bank of Canada just doubled its overnight lending rate, to 0.5%, and became the first G8 country to do so since the Crunch.  That came after a +6% growth rate in Q1 that brings Canada’s GDP to within 0.4% of its peak valuation, and strong employment gains in April.  Of course the loonie dropped nearly a cent against the US$ after the rate hike was announced.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, June 11, 2010

Sovereign Contagion Spreads to UK, Britain's Debt Facade Cracking / Interest-Rates / UK Debt

By: Mike_Larson

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen Greece’s markets first started cracking wide open, a lot of claptrap spewed forth from Wall Street. The general consensus:

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Interest-Rates

Thursday, June 10, 2010

A Problem for the U.S. Dollar Worse than Debt / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Q1_Publishing

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article$19.6 trillion. That’s the Treasury Department’s latest estimate of the national debt to reach by 2015.

The debt has many folks concerned, and rightly so. There is, however, a much bigger problem facing the country and the U.S. dollar.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, June 09, 2010

Misreading Economic Indicators Leads to Bad Policy / Interest-Rates / US Debt

By: Tim_Iacono

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAll this talk about how borrowing costs are so low that Washington couldn’t possibly be facing any sort of a debt crisis – that the 3.2 percent yield on the ten-year note is somehow a vote of confidence in policies coming out of the nation’s capitol – makes me think that, just as the insane fixation on a low consumer price index was a major contributor to the financial crisis, signals coming from U.S. debt markets are being similarly misinterpreted today and this may ultimately lead to an even bigger crisis in our not-too-distant future.

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