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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, June 05, 2013

U.S. Federal Reserve vs. Small Business / Economics / US Federal Reserve Bank

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Given all the attention that the Federal Reserve has garnered for its monetary “stimulus” programs, it’s perplexing to many that the U.S. has been mired in a credit crunch. After all, conventional wisdom tells us that the Fed’s policies, which have lowered interest rates to almost zero, should have stimulated the creation of credit. This has not been the case, and I’m not surprised.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 04, 2013

If the Economic Recovery Is Strong, Why Are Lumber Prices Falling? / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: InvestmentContrarian

Sasha Cekerevac writes: As we all know, the stock market is in record-setting territory. One would think that this must mean the economic recovery engineered by the Federal Reserve is surely in place, but it’s not. I believe that the economic recovery is far from being assured.

The shocking thing to consider is how many trillions of dollars the Federal Reserve has pumped into the economy, and yet all we have to show for it is this very weak economic recovery. To me, this means that the underlying strength of the economic recovery without the Federal Reserve’s support would be much weaker.

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Economics

Sunday, June 02, 2013

Deflation Smackdown: Bernanke’s Madcap Money Printing Fails to Boost Inflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Whitney

“Under a fiat money system, a government… should always be able to generate increased nominal spending and inflation, even when the short-term nominal interest rate is at zero.” Ben S. Bernanke, “Deflation: Making Sure It Doesn’t Happen Here”, November, 2002

The US economy is in a liquidity trap which means that the demand for credit is weak even though the Fed is increasing the monetary base (via the creation of reserves at the banks) and interest rates are at zero. This is a serious problem. When the private sector (businesses and consumers) reduces its borrowing, activity slows, output shrinks, unemployment rises, and the economy slips into recession. That hasn’t happened yet, mainly because government fiscal support and transfers have kept growth in the black. But there are signs that deflationary pressures are starting to build. The consumer price index (CPI) has dropped for two consecutive months, revolving credit is showing new signs of weakness, and deposits at banks still exceed loans by a significant margin. Add the $85 billion across-the-board budget cuts, (sequester) and the prospects for a second-half double-dip look quite good. Here’s a clip from an article in Reuters that helps to explain what’s going on:

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Economics

Sunday, June 02, 2013

More Euro-zone Economic Austerity in face of Record Unemployment / Economics / Unemployment

By: Global_Research

Christoph Dreier writes: Unemployment in the euro zone hit a two-year high in April. According to the latest figures of Europe’s Eurostat statistical agency published on Friday, the unemployment rate rose from 12.1 percent in March to 12.2 percent last month. Fully 24.4 percent of young workers have no job.

The highest jobless rates are found in the southern countries, which have plunged into deep recessions since 2008. At the top of the list is Greece, with an unemployment rate of 27.0 percent, an estimated economic contraction of 4.2 percent this year. A stunning 62.5 percent of youth are out of work.

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Economics

Sunday, June 02, 2013

What If Economic Stimulus Is Self-Defeating? / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Raul_I_Meijer

It's sort of funny to see a wider - though still faint - recognition developing in the financial world that perhaps it's true that the more stimulus is applied in today's global economies, the faster it will hit a wall. Some may finally even begin to see one or more inbuilt mechanisms at work. I personally think it all harks back to what I've long said, that stimulus by governments and central banks may have a function in certain economic cycles, but that applying it without across the board and thorough debt restructuring is a borderline criminal and useless use (and waste) of present and future taxpayer money. Still, we all know by now what will happen when stimulus starts to stutter: ever more will be blindly thrown at that wall.

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Economics

Sunday, June 02, 2013

Ponzi Central Bankers Gone Wild, Japan Exporting Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: John_Mauldin

When Jonathan Tepper and I wrote Endgame some two years ago, the focus was on Europe, but we clearly detailed how Japan would be the true source of global volatility and instability in just a few years. “A Bug in Search of a Windshield” was the title of the chapter on Japan. This year, I wrote in my forecast issue that 2013 would be “The Year of the Windshield.” For the last two weeks we have focused on the problems facing Japan, and such is the importance of Japan to the world economy that this week we will once again turn to the Land of the Rising Sun. I will try to summarize the situation facing the Japanese. This is critical to understand, because they are determined to share their problems with the world, and we will have no choice but to deal with them. Japan is going to affect your economy and your investments, no matter where you live; Japan is that important.

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Economics

Friday, May 31, 2013

Euro-zone Unemployment Crisis Driving Workers to Migrate to UK / Economics / Unemployment

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Euro-zone unemployment rates hit new economic depression extremes, with Greece leading the PIIGS nations that collectively have a youth unemployment rate of more than 50% that continues to encourage mass migration out of the PIIGS to either Germany, or the UK as the below table illustrates there exists a huge gap between the single markets jobs markets.

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Economics

Friday, May 31, 2013

Euro-zone Keynesian Economic Dogmatism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andy_Sutton


Lest I be accused of picking on US-centered media outlets, we’re going to spend a bit of time this week dissecting a Eurozone Reuters article which puts on full display the completely absurd rationale of the Keynesian economic model. This folks is truly the stinker of the year (so far) right here. Unfortunately, it also lays bare the dogmatic nature of economic thinking. It should be no surprise really; the same dogmatism exists in the political and religious arenas as well. Dogmatism was once explained to me as ‘clinging to a particular belief or beliefs in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary’. While this is not the ‘official’ Webster’s definition, it makes the most sense to the average person and is very fitting for this discussion.

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Economics

Friday, May 31, 2013

Keynesian Insanity Defence Against Austrian Austerity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

I just finished reading The Smith/Klein/Kalecki Theory of Austerity by Paul Krugman and I believe it is the most disingenuous piece he has ever written.

Krugman comes out blazing with the statement "Noah Smith recently offered an interesting take on the real reasons austerity garners so much support from elites, no matter how badly it fails in practice."

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Economics

Sunday, May 26, 2013

U.S. Economy Drowning in a Liquidity Trap? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Bruce Bartlett recently lamented in The New York Times that given the current state of economic affairs we need more Keynesian medicine to fix the US economy. According to Bartlett, the core insight of Keynesian economics is that there are very special economic circumstances in which the general rules of economics don’t apply and are in fact counterproductive. This happens when interest rates and inflation rates are so low that monetary policy becomes impotent; an increase in the money supply has no boosting effect because it does not lead to additional spending by consumers or businesses. Keynes called this situation a “liquidity trap.” Keynes wrote,

There is the possibility ... that, after the rate of interest has fallen to a certain level, liquidity-preference may become virtually absolute in the sense that almost everyone prefers cash to holding a debt which yields so low a rate of interest. In this event the monetary authority would have lost effective control over the rate of interest.[1]

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Economics

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Japan Money Printing Economy - Damn the Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead! / Economics / Japan Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things."

"I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."

– Alice in Wonderland, Lewis Carroll

I wrote several years ago that Japan is a bug in search of a windshield. And in January I wrote that 2013 is the Year of the Windshield. The recent volatility in Japanese markets is breathtaking but characteristic of what one should come to expect from a country that is on the brink of fiscal and economic disaster. I don't mean to be trite, from a global perspective; Japan is not Greece: Japan is the third-largest economy in the world. Its biggest banks are on a par with those of the US. It is a global power in trade and trade finance. Its currency has reserve status. It has two of the world’s six largest corporations and 71 of the largest 500, surpassed only by the US and comfortably ahead of China, with 46. Even with the rest of Asia's big companies combined with China's, the total barely surpasses Japan's (CNN). In short, when Japan embarks on a very risky fiscal and monetary strategy, it delivers a serious impact on the rest of the world. And doubly so because global growth is now driven by Asia.

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Economics

Saturday, May 25, 2013

Chinese and German Manufacturing Now Both Contracting / Economics / Global Economy

By: Profit_Confidential

Michael Lombardi writes: A recession for the global economy is becoming an increasingly likely scenario.

The Chinese economy, the second-biggest in the world, witnessed a contraction in manufacturing in May. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 49.6 for May, declining from 50.4 in April. (Source: Markit, May 23, 2013.) Any number below 50 represents contraction in the manufacturing sector.

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Economics

Friday, May 24, 2013

Is the United States the Next Argentina? Part 2 / Economics / Inflation

By: Money_Morning

Garrett Baldwin writes: As I wrote yesterday, government interventions in the marketplace and out of control cronyism have decimated Argentina, one of the most prolific economies of the early 20th century.

But after my week spent there, I can tell you the people of Argentina face an even more troubling problem. It's out of control inflation and it continues to grow worse.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Hot Money, Cold Credit - Misguided Monetary Policy / Economics / Money Supply

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Money matters — it’s a maxim of Prof. Milton Friedman that I repeat often in my columns. Since the Northern Rock bank run of 2007 — the "opening shot" of the financial crisis — the money supply, broadly measured, in the United States, Great Britain, and the Eurozone has taken a beating. Recently, in the United States, money supply growth has started to rebound, but only slightly. In the U.K. and the Eurozone, things are much worse. This is cause for concern, because the quantity of money and nominal gross domestic product are closely related.

Not surprisingly, in the U.S., growth has been anemic, at best. In the U.K., the economy has fluctuated between stagnation and recession. And, in Europe, growth has been replaced by the Eurozone’s longest recession ever. Indeed, 9 of 17 E.U. countries that use the euro are in a recession, including France, and Eurozone unemployment sits at a record 12.1%.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 21, 2013

Economic Philosophy And The New Cycle / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

DENY THE NEGATION
Unknown to many, the dominant political economic doctrine of today, certainly in the OECD countries is the "liberal market doctrine" was built on denial. Since the 2008 crisis, this doctrine has become a mix-and-mingle of 1980s Neoliberalism plus a rejuvenated or reycled 1940s Keynesianism. In other words there is non-intervention in markets, certainly when it concerns fighting near-total monopolies like Microsoft or Google or finding the populace a job, plus massive state borrowing and bail outs of Bad Banks, called too big to fail. The principle is:

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