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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2014

What To Expect From June's Major Economic & Central Bank Events / Economics / Central Banks

By: EconMatters

Since the last Employment report things have been relatively quiet on the economic and Central Bank front but all that is set to change over the next three weeks. Volatility should pick up and many of these events could be potentially market moving for certain asset classes.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2014

How Inflation Helps Keep the Rich Up and the Poor Down / Economics / Inflation

By: MISES

Jörg Guido Hülsmann writes: The production of money in a free society is a matter of free association. Everybody from the miners to the owners of the mines, to the minters, and up to the customers who buy the minted coins — all benefit from the production of money. None of them violates the property rights of anybody else, because everybody is free to enter the mining and minting business, and nobody is obliged to buy the product.

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Economics

Saturday, May 31, 2014

The High Cost of Minimum Wages / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

In Switzerland on May 18 there was a vote to establish a minimum wage rate at a world record $25 an hour: the vote was rejected overwhelmingly as an estimated 76 percent voted against it.

As USA Today reported, there have been strong opinions in both directions. Luisa Almeida, a Portuguese immigrant working in Switzerland, said that she’s against the increase because according to her,“if my employer had to pay me more money, he wouldn’t be able to keep me on and I’d lose the job.” Furthermore, even though Switzerland does not currently have any laws regarding minimum wage rates, Luisa said she already makes more than she would at home in Portugal (where minimum wage is $4.19 per hour).

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

The Pretty Girl and the US Economy / Economics / US Economy

By: Raul_I_Meijer

There’s a persistent story that says (though I don’t think I can confirm it) that a pretty girl prefers to surround herself with less pretty girls – all in the eye of the beholder – in order to look prettier. After seeing yesterday’s -1% (-2% if you include Obamacare) US GDP ungrowth number, a fair segment of the financial press and punditry took a page out of the pretty girl playbook and ran with it. What should really be a deeply disturbing number in a 5 year old recovery (which is about 100 years in human terms) that has cost Americans trillions upon trillions in stimulus measures, is easily turned, without batting an eye, into a solid positive. The awful Q1 print, we are now told, serves to make Q2 look that much better.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

Crony Capitalism - Crony Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Andrew_McKillop

Tuesday Markets and IMF Forecasts
Almost any Tuesday, financial markets are up. Yes it happens but no, the “Tuesday blip” is pure market manipulation and nothing whatsoever to do with the real economy. Likewise any IMF forecast of economic growth, for any country in the world is always revised down from the previous forecast, but always shows a magnificent recovery “coming soon”.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

US Economy GDP Even Worse Than It Looks, Again / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Rubino

As expected, the US revised the most recent quarter’s GDP from barely positive to sharply negative today. But once again the true extent of the problem was hidden by some statistical sleight of hand, in this case wildly-optimistic inflation assumptions.

Here’s an excerpt from the Consumer Metrics Institute’s just-published analysis:

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

The U.S. Jobs Market is Gaining Traction / Economics / Employment

By: EconMatters

Claims Data

The Jobless claims data came out on Thursday and the trend is still in place and bodes well for the May Employment Report coming out next Friday as jobless claims fell sharply in the May 24 week, down 27,000 to 300,000. The 4-week average is down a significant 11,250 to a new recovery low of 311,500. Continuing claims are also down, falling 17,000 in data for the May 17 week to a new recovery low of 2.631 million. The 4-week average is down 33,000 to 2.655 million, also a recovery low. The unemployment rate for insured workers, also at a recovery low, came in at 2.0 percent. Notice a pattern here, new recovery low, new recovery low, and new recovery low.

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Economics

Friday, May 30, 2014

Fed's Lacker Warns U.S. Inflation Is Accelerating / Economics / Inflation

By: Bloomberg

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker told Bloomberg Radio host Kathleen Hays on "The Hays Advantage" today that inflation may not need to be too fast before the Fed raises the main interest rate. Lacker said, "I don't see us having to wait until inflation is actually getting to a place we don't like."

Lacker said, "We've seen inflation bottom out; I think it's pretty conclusive it's bottomed out in the last couple of quarters. And there's some tentative signs that a move back towards, a gradual move back towards 2 percent is in train, and I'm hopeful that that will play out over the year."

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

U.S. Economic Growth BEA Revised GDP Sharply Lower to -1% / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

BEA Revises 1st Quarter 2014 GDP Sharply Downward to Outright Contraction at Nearly a 1% Annual Rate: In their second estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter of 2014, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the economy was contracting at a -0.99% annualized rate. When compared to prior quarters, the new measurement is down over 3.6% from the 2.64% growth rate reported for the 4th quarter of 2013, and it is now more than 5% lower than the 4.19% reported for the 3rd quarter of 2013.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Impending Economic Downturns and the New Skyscraper Curse / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mark_Thornton

From CNN to Barron’s to Le Monde, Mark Thornton has been featured as an authority on how record-setting skyscrapers signal impending economic downturns. Last month, Dr. Thornton spoke with us about the Skyscraper Index and the Skyscraper Curse.

Mises Institute: The Skyscraper Index, which shows a correlation between the construction of the world’s tallest buildings and economic busts, was created by economist Andrew Lawrence in 1999. In 2007, you used the index with Austrian business cycle theory to identify the economic downturn that followed. How does Austrian business cycle theory explain the index?

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Iran Economy Stable but Miserable / Economics / Iran

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since Hassan Rouhani assumed the presidency of the Islamic Republic of Iran in August of last year, the economic outlook for Iran has improved. When Rouhani took office, he promised three things: to curb the inflation which had become rampant under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to stabilize Iran's currency (the Rial), and to start talks to potentially try and end the sanctions which have battered Iran since 2010. Rouhani has delivered on each of these promises. From this, one might assume that the Iranian economy, and the Iranian people, are headed towards better times.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Piketty's 'Capital in the 21st Century' Book Envy Problem / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Peter_Schiff

There can be little doubt that Thomas Piketty's new book Capital in the 21st Century has struck a nerve globally. In fact, the Piketty phenomenon (the economic equivalent to Beatlemania) has in some ways become a bigger story than the ideas themselves. However, the book's popularity is not at all surprising when you consider that its central premise: how radical wealth redistribution will create a better society, has always had its enthusiastic champions (many of whom instigated revolts and revolutions). What is surprising, however, is that the absurd ideas contained in the book could captivate so many supposedly intelligent people.

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Economics

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Why Keynesians Should Not be so Careless with Terminology / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

Should we print, not print? Stimulate, not stimulate? Is austerity the right or wrong policy? Is government spending or printing effective? If we ask two economists these questions, we will likely get three opinions for each question. Economists seem confused, yet these questions are more important today than ever. Where does this confusion come from? Doesn’t economic theory give us clear cut answers? It does, but poor terminology and a lack of focus have muddied the waters. Many macroeconomic disagreements can be elucidated with a better understanding of the role played by holding cash, or hoarding, in economics.

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Economics

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

The Cost of Government Is Higher Than You Think / Economics / Government Spending

By: MISES

Gary M. Galles writes: “Look what I did for you!” When our children were small, my wife and I got many gifts from them accompanied with those words (including most of our refrigerator art and many things that still adorn our Christmas trees), in search of approval and encouragement.

While that process was an endearing part of parenting, I have been struck by a far less endearing parallel to public servants. In a similar way, they are always rolling out some new plan or program “for you,” in search of accolades and votes. However, unlike our children, what they claim to have created is frequently misleading to the point of rank dishonesty, because they present the benefits of their panaceas as far greater than they really are and the costs as far less than they really are. And a substantial part of that political overselling involves overlooked crowding-out effects.

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Economics

Tuesday, May 27, 2014

In a Flash, China Economy Looks Strong / Economics / China Economy

By: Frank_Holmes

If you want to know where the world economy is headed, there is one number that I believe investors should focus on: the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

Last week, the preliminary flash PMI for May came in at 49.7, beating Bloomberg’s consensus of 48.3.

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