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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, August 05, 2013

Shadow Banking - Is our Monetary Policy Dictated by the Peoples Bank of China? / Economics / China Economy

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

The current credit crunch in China is due to PBOC’s (People's Bank Of China) or China's Central Bank refusal to act as the lender of last resort to help banks to get out of their own financial mess. It also demonstrates that Central bank is willing to allow market forces to play a bigger role. This is to mean that banks will have to be on their own since PBOC has indicated that it will not be bailing them out this round. As a result banks have no choice but to be more conservative in their lending policies. What PBOC hope to achieve out of this?

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Economics

Friday, August 02, 2013

Ravenous Vampire-Hounds Of Inflationary Hell / Economics / Inflation

By: Richard_Daughty

Thinking back on it, I see that I was, indeed, “on the edge” of going, as I seem to routinely be these days, completely berserk about how the evil Federal Reserve is creating so irresponsibly much, so staggeringly much, so impossibly much, so disastrously much excess currency and credit that We’re Freaking Doomed (WFD) to ruination and complete bankruptcy by the unstoppable inflation in prices, crushing weight of unpayable debt and a monstrous, suffocating government.

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Economics

Friday, August 02, 2013

Why QE Money Printing Hasn't Stimulated the U.S. Economy / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Clif_Droke

After the Fed's latest 2-day policy meeting it announced on Wednesday that it would continue its $85 billion per month asset purchase program. The major indices fluctuated from positive to negative throughout the day, as is typical of a Fed meeting day, before closing basically unchanged.

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Economics

Thursday, August 01, 2013

Curious GDP Deflator: Understanding Why Q2 GDP Growth Wasn’t 0.6% / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short:How do you get from Nominal GDP to Real GDP? You extract inflation from the numbers. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) uses its own GDP deflator for this purpose, one that is somewhat different from the BEA’s deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures and quite a bit different from the better-known Bureau of Labor Statistics’ inflation gauge, the Consumer Price Index.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Increasing Probability for Cyclical Recession / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Profit_Confidential

Mitchell Clark writes: This is a big week for capital markets, with the Federal Reserve meeting and July’s unemployment numbers to be released on Friday.

One thing that’s been clear with the stock market is that it has been staying lofty, mostly due to the expectation that the Fed will continue quantitative easing. But under this continued monetary stimulus, financial results are showing mediocrity.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Economic Future - The Blip! / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

This week's Outside the Box does not make me feel good, but author Benjamin Wallace-Wells does explain Robert Gordon’s views better than anyone I have seen. (And of course the whole point of Outside the Box is to yank us out of our comfort zones from time to time.)

Dr. Robert Gordon is a professor of economics who has held a named chair at Northwestern University for decades; but as the author of this piece says, "[T]he scope of his bleakness has given him, over the past year, a newfound public profile." Gordon offers us two key predictions, both discomfiting. The first pertains to the near future, when, he says, our economy will grow at less than half its average rate over the last century because of a whole raft of structural headwinds.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Why What Happens to the Chinese Economy Is Critical to America / Economics / China Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: The Chinese experiment is over—at least that’s what some in the financial media are saying. Well, guess what? It’s not over, but there will be hurdles along the road for China, as the country struggles to drive its domestic consumption and make sure the economy doesn’t tank.

The reality is that what happens in China is critical to America and the global economy. In fact, I will go as far as to say China is an increasingly important barometer for global business.

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Economics

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Ugly Secular Employment Trend of Part-Time Work, Emergening Underclass, the Lost Generation / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

It is pretty well established that a tax increase, especially an income tax increase, will have an immediate negative effect on the economy, with a multiplier of between 1 and 3 depending upon whose research you accept. As far as I am aware, no peer-reviewed study exists that concludes there will be no negative effects. The US economy is soft; employment growth is weak – and yet we are about to see a significant middle-class tax increase, albeit a stealth one, passed by the current administration. I will acknowledge that dealing a blow to the economy was not the actual plan, but that is what is happening in the real world where you and I live. This week we will briefly look at why weak consumer spending is going to become an even greater problem in the coming years, and we will continue to look at some disturbing trends in employment.

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Economics

Friday, July 26, 2013

Forecasting China - Rebalancing - Change And Discontinuity / Economics / China Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Forecasting China trends is now a hard ride. The days of rock solid 10%-a-year growth are going, going, gone. Like the celestial Dragon which Chinese astrologers place at the center of their Magic Square – able to appear or disappear without warning to the 11 other real Animals such as the Monkey, Snake, Cat or Horse. China has woken up to what is a new problem for Chinese, but not for others. Its slowdown of economic growth, but possible slump into very low growth was a process that took about 40 years for the USA and 20 years for Japan - but may may only take 10 years for China.

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Economics

Thursday, July 25, 2013

Free Spending Japan Now Headed for Economic Recovery? / Economics / Japan Economy

By: InvestmentContrarian

George Leong writes: It’s official: free-spending Prime Minister Shinzo Abe along with his Liberal Democratic Party and its alliance with the New Komeito Party will control the fate of Japan for the next few years. This will be enough power and support to push forward Abe’s massive and ambitious $1.2 trillion 10-year spending plan to drive the country’s economic recovery and battle deflation.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 24, 2013

U.S. Economic Review - Inflation, GDP and Long-term Interest Rates / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington kick off their second-quarter Review and Outlook with a contrarian view: "The secular low in bond yields has yet to be recorded." And as usual, they have their reasons; but unlike most of the blabbermouth economic talking heads out there, they aren't interested in endlessly parsing the fitful utterances of Ben Bernanke and friends. Rather, they zero in on the fundamental reasons why long-term Treasury yields have probably not hit their low. Those reasons fall, they say, into four categories: (a) diminished inflation pressures, (b) slowing GDP growth, (c) weakening consumer fundamentals, and (d) anti-growth monetary and fiscal policies.

Then Lacy and Van take us deep into the whys and wherefores of their thesis. Their reasoning and the evidence behind it make for compelling reading – but you may want to read twice.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle / Economics / China Economy

By: STRATFOR

Recognizing the End of the Chinese Economic Miracle

Major shifts underway in the Chinese economy that Stratfor has forecast and discussed for years have now drawn the attention of the mainstream media. Many have asked when China would find itself in an economic crisis, to which we have answered that China has been there for awhile -- something not widely recognized outside China, and particularly not in the United States. A crisis can exist before it is recognized. The admission that a crisis exists is a critical moment, because this is when most others start to change their behavior in reaction to the crisis. The question we had been asking was when the Chinese economic crisis would finally become an accepted fact, thus changing the global dynamic.

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Economics

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Euro-zone Deflation Warning for U.S. / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

History shows that the U.S. should pay attention to economies in Europe

The economy has been sluggish for five years. There's no shortage of chatter about "why," yet few observers mention deflation.

One exception is a hedge fund manager who spoke up at the recent Milken Institute Global Conference.

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Economics

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Inflation or Deflation? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls . . . become 'profiteers', who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished not less than the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds . . . all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless…. – John Maynard Keynes

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Economics

Saturday, July 20, 2013

IMF Economists Say The Economic Recovery Is A Fake / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Andrew_McKillop

WE ALWAYS BELIEVE THE IMF
Yet another 'leaked report' this time tells us something we have suspected for a long time – not only concerning the IMF's underhand “plausible denial” way of communicating bad news. The story starts with an internal IMF report called 'confidential' which was 'leaked to a Wall St Journal contributor'. This is now standard practice for the IMF, growing rapidly, and easy to trace back to its handling, or mishandling of European bailouts starting with Greece. One example is this report http://online.wsj.com...?  where the IMF 'concedes it made mistakes'. Original leakage of this report generated a mini-crisis among EU27 finance ministers, including harsh words from Economics Commissioner Olli Rehn.

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