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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, January 03, 2014

Eurozone Economy Expands but Hollande Concedes France Crippled by High Taxes / Economics / France

By: Mike_Shedlock

Eurozone manufacturing is at a 31-month high according to Markit. Every country but France and Greece are expanding. French manufacturing is at a seven-month low in an intensified downturn.

The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI® rose for the third month running to post 52.7 in December, up from 51.6 in November (and unchanged from the earlier flash estimate).

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Economics

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Malaysia Bracing for Possible Indonesia Economic Meltdown / Economics / Asian Economies

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

Indonesia is the fifth largest economy in Asia and the fourth most populous country in the world. Thanks to the strong macro-economic reform and liberalization of its international trade. As a result a strong economic growth to the tune of 6-8% is achievable for the past few years. Since the last Asian Financial Crisis, Indonesia has made much stride in poverty eradication, economic growth and human capital development. To stabilize prices, Monetary Policy tools such as interest rates, liquidity management and macro-prudential measures are used. Other measures taken to ensure sustainable economic growth includes raising minimum wage, reduction in fuel subsidies, electricity and other essential items, increase cash payment to low income group and broaden the tax base.

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Economics

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Economic Forecasts and Drivers 2014 - The Fed, Inflation-Deflation, Interest Rates, Housing and Speculation / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It's that time of year again, when we begin to think of what the next one will bring. I will be doing my annual forecast issue next week, but my friend Gary Shilling has already done his and has graciously allowed me to use a shortened version of his letter as this week's Thoughts from the Frontline. So without any further ado, let's jump right to Gary's look at where we are and where we're going.

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Economics

Friday, December 27, 2013

What's Fueling the Post Christmas Sales? / Economics / Shopping

By: Jonathan_Davis

I was on BBC Radio London yesterday talking about the Sales. The idea was that we’re all being duped into buying stuff we don’t need. Well Duh!!! Isn’t that the basis of our economy for the last 25 years?

However, I think this year is a watershed.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

How Government Austerity Cutbacks Ended Sweden’s Great Depression / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: MISES

Per L. Bylund writes: During the recent financial crisis, Sweden has emerged as one of very few financially sound economies. The country’s strong position, setting it apart from most Western nations, makes it an interesting example of what could — or should — have been done. Indeed, Paul Krugman, the former economist and Nobel Prize laureate, has repeatedly pointed approvingly at how the Swedes handled their depression in the early 1990s as the reason for their recent success. Specifically, he notes the nationalization of some banks at the time of the crisis. While he misses the point by focusing exclusively on a narrow selection of short-term measures rather than longer-term changes, as is the hallmark of a Keynesian, Krugman is right that Sweden has done some things right.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

U.S. Economy - The ‘Real’ Goods on the Latest Durable Goods Data / Economics / US Economy

By: PhilStockWorld

Earlier today I posted an update on the December Advance Report on November Durable Goods Orders. This Census Bureau series dates from 1992 and is not adjusted for either population growth or inflation.

Let’s now review the same data with two adjustments. In the charts below the red line shows the goods orders divided by the Census Bureau’s monthly population data, giving us durable goods orders per capita. The blue line goes a step further and adjusts for inflation based on the Producer Price Index, chained in today’s dollar value. This gives us the “real” durable goods orders per capita. The snapshots below offer an alternate historical context in which to evaluate the standard reports on the nominal monthly data.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Economic Illiterate Proposal: Inflation Creates Jobs / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Mike_Shedlock

Those looking economically illiterate proposals can have a field day reading Ezra Klein's "Wonkblog" on the Washington Post.

In Full Employment Gives People Jobs Klein states (citing two others) "The Federal Reserve Bank's focus on keeping inflation below 2 percent effectively sacrifices the other half of its dual mandate: full employment."

It's difficult to know where to start debating such economic lunacy, but let's briefly discuss the notion of a "dual mandate".

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Economics

Saturday, December 21, 2013

After the QE Taper: The Fed’s Non-Plan Is Unchanged / Economics / Inflation

By: MISES

Frank Hollenbeck writes: As an economist, it is getting more difficult to understand the logic underlying current monetary policy in the U.S. There are two main channels by which economists think monetary policy can influence growth and employment. The first is to lower interest rates to spur investment and consumption spending. The second is to induce inflation so real wages drop, spurring output and employment.

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Economics

Friday, December 20, 2013

Fiat Money Quantity and it's Increasingly Likely Hyperinflation / Economics / Money Supply

By: Alasdair_Macleod

By November, the most recent month for which statistics are available, the US Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ) had grown to $12.351 trillion. This is $4.96 trillion more than it would be if it had grown in line with the established average monthly growth rate from 1960 to the month before the Lehman Crisis. By this measure monetary inflation since August 2009 is now 67% above trend. This is illustrated in Chart 1 below.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Portugal Europe’s Economic Comeback Kid? / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Investment_U

Marc Lichtenfeld writes: I had just returned to my hotel room in Innsbruck, Austria, when my wife called. Before I could tell her about the beautiful scenery and amazing experiences I was having on The Oxford Club’s European Opportunity Expedition, she stopped me.

I needed to hop a flight to Portugal immediately, she said. My father – who also happened to be in Europe, though not part of our tour – was having emergency (though, fortunately, routine) surgery in Lisbon.

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

If Money Printing Failed in Japan, Why Would It Work in the U.S.? / Economics / Quantitative Easing

By: Profit_Confidential

What the Federal Reserve is doing in the U.S.—its effort to get the economy going via its money printing program—has already been tried by the second-largest economy in the world: Japan.

Unfortunately, the easy monetary policy implemented by the Bank of Japan didn’t spur the Japanese economy. So why would it work for the U.S. economy?

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

The Mirage Called a “U.S. Economic Recovery” / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: DailyGainsLetter

Mohammad Zulfiqar writes: “Just give up being so negative; there’s economic growth in the U.S. economy.”

These were the exact words of my good old friend, Mr. Speculator. Over the weekend, when I received a call from him, he added, “You see the average American is better off than before. There are jobs; and no matter where you look, you won’t find much negativity. Look at the stock markets; they probably will show a 30% increase for 2013.”

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Economics

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Inflation in the United States - Keeping it Real! / Economics / Inflation

By: James_Quinn

“One only needs to reflect on the dramatic decline in the value of the dollar that has taken place since the Fed was established in 1913. The goods and services you could buy for $1.00 in 1913 now cost nearly $21.00. Another way to look at this is from the perspective of the purchasing power of the dollar itself. It has fallen to less than $0.05 of its 1913 value. We might say that the government and its banking cartel have together stolen $0.95 of every dollar as they have pursued a relentlessly inflationary policy.” - Ron Paul – End the Fed

The BLS reported the CPI this morning. They tell me that inflation is well contained and has only risen by 1.2% in the past twelve months. Our beloved Federal Reserve chairman is worried inflation is too low. It is fascinating that the only people worried about inflation being too low are Ivy League educated economists and bankers whose wealth depends upon the middle class sinking further into poverty.

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Economics

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Economic Lessons from Nazi Germany - Starvation and Military Keynesianism / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Julian Adorney writes: Many Americans, from the Glenview State Bank of Chicago to author Ellen Brown assume that the Nazi economic regime was successful, but closer examination tells a tale of rationing, shortages, and starvation. Learning why their economy failed can teach us how to avoid the same fate.

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Economics

Thursday, December 12, 2013

U.S. Sub-Par Economic Recovery With a Propensity Towards a Downturn / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

It is a regular ritual for major US businesses: the end-of-the-quarter conference call in which the CEO dissects what just happened and gives us some insight on what to expect for the future of the company. My good friend Rich Yamarone, the chief economist at Bloomberg, is the creator of the Bloomberg Orange Book, a compilation of macroeconomic anecdotes gleaned from the comments CEOs and CFOs make on their quarterly earnings conference calls. He not only sits and listens to them present their views, he also picks up the phone and talks to them. He is very clued in on what's happening in the real world of business.

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