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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, April 02, 2014

Debt Makes You Dumb, Japanese Edition / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: John_Rubino

Debt works the same way for countries as for families and individuals. That is, if you borrow too much, your life begins to suck. And actions that in normal times might have seemed unwise, contradictory or downright stupid begin to look better than the (even more disturbing) alternatives.

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Economics

Monday, March 31, 2014

Inflation Is Coming, What to Do NOW! / Economics / Inflation

By: Jeff_Clark

We’ve all heard of the inflationary horrors so many countries have lived through in the past. Third-world countries, developing nations, and advanced economies alike—no country in history has escaped the debilitating fallout of unrepentant currency abuse. And we expect the same fallout to impact the US, the EU, Japan, China—all of today’s countries that have turned to the printing press as a solution to their economic woes.

Now, it seems obvious to us that the way to protect one’s self against high inflation is to hold one’s wealth in gold… But did citizens in countries that have experienced high or hyperinflation turn to gold in response? Gold enthusiasts may assume so, but what does the data actually show?

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Economics

Sunday, March 30, 2014

China’s Ponzi Scheme Unravels / Economics / China Economy

By: LewRockwell

China is the greatest construction boom and credit bubble in recorded history. An entire nation of 1.3 billion has gone mad building, borrowing, speculating, scheming, cheating, lying and stealing. The source of this demented outbreak is not a flaw in Chinese culture or character—nor even the kind of raw greed and gluttony that afflicts all peoples in the late stages of a financial bubble.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

We Do Not Live in a Post-Scarcity World / Economics / Economic Theory

By: William_Anderson

Jeremy Rifkin long has perfected the art of adding two and two and getting five. In the 1980s, he claimed that entropy made it impossible for a free economy to exist, and therefore Rifkin concluded the state needed to plan and run things. How the state would triumph over the second law of thermodynamics is anyone’s guess. He later declared that a new “hydrogen economy” was just around the corner — government just needed to engage in central planning and order hydrogen to be our new fuel of choice.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

Looking back, I see that I have mentioned the name Hyman Minsky in no fewer than ten Thoughts from the Frontline letters in just the past two years; and his name has popped up in all four letters so far this month, most notably on March 1, when we brought back one of my most popular pieces, “Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty” (the “sandpile” letter) and last week, when the letter was titled “China’s Minksy Moment?”

I wasn’t consciously aware of how often I had trotted Minsky out as I sat (somewhat unstably, I have to admit) atop a headstrong horse in the foothills of the Argentine Andes the other day; but my precarious situation did somehow get me thinking of Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis, and it occurred to me that both you and I might learn something by going right back to its source, which turns out to be a rather unprepossessing five-page paper Dr. Minsky published at Bard College in 1992.

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Economics

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Will Inflation Make A Comeback In 2014 When Consensus Worries About Deflation / Economics / Inflation

By: GoldSilverWorlds

Two months ago, Incrementum Liechtenstein released its chartbook entitled “Monetary Tectonics” which illustrated the raging war between inflation and deflation in 40 charts. Meantime, the authors of the chartbook have launched the “Austrian Economics Golden Opportunities Fund,” a fund that takes investment positions based on the level of inflation. The key tool in their investment decisions is the “Incrementum Inflation Signal” (also referred to as the “monetary seismograph”), a continuing measurement of how much monetary inflation reaches the real economy based on a series of market-based indicators.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

The Huge Economic Indicator Everyone Misses / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Keith Fitz-Gerald writes: If you like bull markets, you better hope Janet Yellen is one of the most talkative Fed Chairs in history.

It's not that she's going to say anything brilliant or insightful, just that she says something - anything - on a regular basis.

You see, there's a direct relationship between how much she says and what's happening in the markets. What she says is almost completely irrelevant.

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Economics

Tuesday, March 25, 2014

Let the Economic Data Speak: The Truth Behind Minimum Wage Laws / Economics / Wages

By: Steve_H_Hanke

President Obama set the chattering classes abuzz after his recent unilateral announcement to raise the minimum wage for newly hired Federal contract workers. During his State of the Union address in January, he sang the praises for his decision, saying that “It’s good for the economy; it’s good for America.” As the worldwide economic slump drags on, the political drumbeat to either introduce minimum wage laws (read: Germany) or increase the minimums in countries where these laws exist – such as Indonesia – is becoming deafening. Yet the glowing claims about minimum wage laws don’t pass the economic smell test. Just look at the data from Europe (see the accompanying chart).

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Economics

Monday, March 24, 2014

The Fourteen Year Economic Recession / Economics / Recession 2014

By: James_Quinn

 “When a government is dependent upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of the government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes. Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain.”Napoleon Bonaparte

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Economics

Saturday, March 22, 2014

China’s Minsky Moment? / Economics / China Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In speeches and presentations since the end of last year, I have been saying that I think the biggest macro problem in the world today is China. China has run up a huge debt, and the payments are coming due. They seem to be proactive, but will it be enough? How much risk do they pose for the global system?

This week as I travel to Cafayate I have asked my young associate Worth Wray to write up his research and our conversations on China. Worth has lived in China; and with his (and my) access to people with their fingers on the pulse of China, he has come up with some valuable insights. The hard part for him was to keep it in a single letter. China is a such a huge topic that writing about it can easily yield a tome.

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Economics

Friday, March 21, 2014

Rising Borrowing Costs Could Threaten US Economic Recovery and USD Rally / Economics / US Economy

By: MahiFX

There's an inconvenient truth, which is that many western countries are so heavily indebted that they cannot afford rising interest rates, yet that is exactly what is starting to happen in the US and long before the US Federal Reserve tighten official rates.

Steadily rising interest rates should be supportive for USD as the Fed normalises its monetary policy. Yet the very process of winding down quantitative easing could be sowing the seeds for the next US economic downturn and a weaker USD. 

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Economics

Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Marc Faber Warns China's Credit Crisis Unwind 'Will Be a Disaster' / Economics / China Economy

By: Bloomberg

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, appeared on Bloomberg Television today to discuss the state of the Chinese economy.

Faber told Trish Regan and Matt Miller "I think that we had a colossal credit bubble in China and that this credit bubble is now being gradually deflated....if I look at export figures from China, and they are very closely correlated to overall economic growth, then there is a huge discrepancy between what China reports and what China's trading partners are reporting."

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2014

Inflation Does Not Produce Economic Growth / Economics / Inflation

By: Frank_Shostak

After settling at 3.9 percent in July 2011 the yearly rate of growth of the consumer price index (CPI) fell to 1.6 percent by January this year. Also, the yearly rate of growth of the consumer price index less food and energy displays a visible downtrend falling from 2.3 percent in April 2012 to 1.6 percent in January.

On account of a visible decline in the growth momentum of the consumer price index (CPI) many economists have concluded that this provides scope for the US central bank to maintain its aggressive monetary stance.

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Economics

Monday, March 17, 2014

The Economic Recovery's New Clothes / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Michael_Pento

I sometimes feel that the economy is living out the Hans Christian Andersen's fable called "The Emperor's New Clothes". He wrote the story back in 1837 about a vain emperor who hired a couple of charlatans that promise to make him the finest robes out of invisible thread. They convinced the Emperor that anyone not appreciating the sartorial splendor of the two swindlers should be deemed hopelessly stupid and unfit for their positions.

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Economics

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Fiat Money and Business Cycles in Emerging Markets / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: MISES

Roger McKinney writes: After the stock market collapse of 2008 and a decline of 3.4 percent for U.S. GDP in 2009, investors rushed to stash funds in emerging markets (EM) where economies were growing at a 3.1 percent annual rate. But the US stock market fell in January of this year largely due to financial trouble in emerging markets. The economies of EM nations, such as, Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, Thailand, and China, have deteriorated in part because of the withdrawal of US dollar investments from them. Here is a chart from the Institute for International Finance (IIF)[1] showing the capital flows to EM nations:

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