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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

The Two Gaping Holes in the Inflationist Argument / Economics / Inflation

By: Andrew_Butter

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe current debate revolves around the simplified monetarist equation (which everyone accepts), that says (M•VT = P•TT) where (M) is the amount of (liquid) money in the system, (VT) is the transactions velocity of this money which is the average frequency across all transactions with which a unit of money is spent (i.e. how fast it moves from one pocket to another), (PT) is the price of goods and services being traded and (T) is an index of the real value of aggregate transactions (no it's not the number of transactions, that's included in (V) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantity_theory_of_money)). [VT] and [T] are hard to measure and the equation can also be expressed as (M•V = P•Q) where (Q) is output, which approximates to real GDP, typically (M) is measured and (V) is calculated from (V=M/nominal GDP).

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Economics

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Why It’s Stagflation, Not Hyperinflation... For Now / Economics / Stagflation

By: Michael_Pento

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the longer term, the risk of the U.S. suffering through a bout with hyperinflation is very real. However, in the short term what we most likely face is a protracted period of stagflation first because of our record debt and the Fed’s decision to pay interest on excess bank reserves.

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Economics

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

The Housing & Economic Bubble in Real Life / Economics / Liquidity Bubble

By: LewRockwell

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMyron Weber writes: As my wife and I were on our way to the home improvement store this past weekend, I saw the economic bubble that brought about the current bust illustrated in stark reality. Near our home in Orange County, California, driving on a beautifully-paved, 6-lane street with a landscaped median and surrounded by relatively new housing developments, the conversation went something like this:

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Economics

Monday, April 27, 2009

Money Supply Multipliers, Velocity, and Excess Reserves / Economics / Money Supply

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInquiring minds are reading the Quarterly Review and Outlook by Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. It's an excellent report so let's take a look at some commentary and charts.

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Economics

Monday, April 27, 2009

Darling's Wishful Thinking Budget is Bad News for Gilts / Economics / UK Economy

By: MoneyWeek

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleRats are usually the first to abandon a sinking ship. But in Britain, it seems the rats are only too happy to stick around. According to Bloomberg, rats are "thriving, with shuttered shops and half-built housing sites to live in, rotting piles of uncollected garbage for dinner, and fewer exterminators sent out to kill them." The rat population has grown by 13% this year, to more than 50m, reckons Peter Crowden, head of the National Pest Technicians Association.

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Economics

Monday, April 27, 2009

Economic Downturn Hits UK Public Finances / Economics / UK Economy

By: Lloyds_TSB

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOverview
UK Budget 2009 announcements were as grim as expected. Official borrowing will reach over 12% of the economy in the current financial year, or £175bn. It will fall only slightly in 2010/11 to £173bn, and to 11.9% of the economy if the official forecast of 1.25% growth for 2010 proves correct.

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Economics

Monday, April 27, 2009

Financial & Economic Crisis: Are We at the End of the Beginning, or the Beginning of the End? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Kevin_Geary

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." Winston Churchill —at the Lord Mayor's Luncheon, Mansion House following the victory at El Alamein in North Africa, London, 10 November 1942.

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Economics

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Improving Economic Indicators as Housing Market Shows Signs of Stabilising / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Prieur_du_Plessis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAsha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Leading Index - continues to send message of weak economic conditions
“The Conference Board’s Index of Leading Indicators (LEI) dropped -0.3% in March 2009, after a revised 0.2% decline during February. The LEI posted the last increase in June 2008. On a year-to-year basis, the quarterly average of the LEI fell 3.8% after a 4.0% decline in the fourth quarter. The LEI appears to have established a bottom in the fourth quarter of 2008.

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Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2009

European Union in Crisis as Financial & Economic Problems Multiply Threatening Euro Stability / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Money_and_Markets

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBryan Rich writes: The IMF released its Global Financial Stability Report this week. And it’s projecting total losses from the global financial crisis to reach $4.1 TRILLION. That’s four times the amount projected in last year’s report.

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Economics

Saturday, April 25, 2009

Back to the Future Recession 2010-11, Professors Teaching Economic Garbage / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMV=PQ
Financial Innovation: The Round Trip
2010-11: Back to the Future Recession
The Fed at the Crossroads
How Did We Get It So Wrong?
The Trend Is Not Your Friend When It Ends

This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas. You can also go there to sign up to get this letter sent to you free each week.

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Economics

Friday, April 24, 2009

UK Economic Crash, GDP Contracts by 1.9% / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK GDP contracted by a shockingly high 1.9% for the first quarter of 2009, which was set against consensus forecasts for a 1.5% contraction. Barely 2 days ago the Chancellor Alistair Darling forecast GDP contraction of 3.5% for 2009, 1.25% growth for 2010 and 3.5% growth for 2011. At the time I stated that Alistair Darling forecasts implied a miraculous turnaround and was set against my own forecast as of February 09 for 2009 GDP contraction of 4.75%, with peak to trough contraction of -6.3%.

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Economics

Friday, April 24, 2009

Global Economic Depression Unemployment- Learning from Japan / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Stathis

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI ran across an interesting story about how Japan is using a somewhat innovative approach to deal with its own symptoms of what will eventually be recorded in history books as the global depression. http://www.nytimes.com..

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Economics

Friday, April 24, 2009

UK GDP Forecast to Contract by 1.5% for 1st Quarter 2009 / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGDP data for the first quarter of 2009 to be released this morning is expected by the majority of economists to contract by 1.5% despite panic measures of zero interest rates and quantitative easing which however have yet to show through in economic data. The Market Oracle forecast as of Feb 2009 is for GDP contraction of 1.1% for the first quarter of 2009.

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

UK Unemployment Targets 3 Million This Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK Unemployment shot up by 71,000 for January 09 data to 12 year high of 2.1 million to officially stand at 6.7% of the workforce, 2.1 million is exactly on target as per my forecast of October 2008. However the more up to date unemployment claimant count data continued to soar, rising by 64,000 in March to 1.52 million, which is up more than 50% on the 970,000 figure of 6 months ago and acts as a leading leading indicator which signals much higher forward unemployment data as illustrated by the below graph

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Economics

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Global Financial Crisis: Bad Economics, Economists Do not Have a Clue / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Global_Research

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleProf. John Kozy writes: Classical/neoclassical economics has consistently protected the wealth of the privileged; it has preserved the status quo. This is capitalism's intent, and the evidence for it is overwhelming. It has impeded the improvement of the human condition for two hundred years, and unless it is scrapped, it will continue to do so. No mere change in government can stop it.

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