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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Sunday, May 04, 2014

A Stampede Of Elephants In The China Shop - The Chinese Shadow Banking System / Economics / China Credit Crisis

By: Raul_I_Meijer

I’m going to take a number of different sources to paint a portrait of China. I’ll take a great series of numbers from Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, whose analysis we can all do without, and leave the analysis up to David Stockman, who goes a long way but, in my proverbial humble view, seems to be stumbling a bit towards the end. That is to say, as I’ve written before, when I look at China these days, I see a bare and basic battle for raw power, economic as well as political power, between the Chinese government and the shadow banking system it has allowed, if not encouraged, to establish and flourish, and which now has grown into a threat to the central state control that is the only model Beijing has ever either understood or been willing to apply.

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Economics

Sunday, May 04, 2014

Inside the Latest U.S. Jobs Report - Nonfarm Payrolls +288,000, Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%... / Economics / Employment

By: Mike_Shedlock

Initial Reaction

This month sported another amazing difference between the household survey and the payroll survey. The difference is so vast that looking at the numbers in isolation, one might think the results were from two different countries.

The headline number from the payroll survey beat expectations by a mile with 288,000 jobs, but beneath the surface, the household survey shows employment declined by 73,000.

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Economics

Saturday, May 03, 2014

Gerald Celente Finally Gives a Date for U.S. Economic Collapse / Economics / US Economy

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Gerald Celente, a popular gloom and doom blogger and publisher of the TR Journal finally gives a date for the always coming economic collapse that I must have been hearing about for 5 years now.

WLW Radio - 30th April 2014

"Your predicting an economic collapse, when do you think that is going to happen Gerald?"

"I am going to say by the end of the second quarter." - Gerald Celente

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2014

The Upcoming Dawn of the 60-Year Inflation Cycle / Economics / Inflation

By: Clif_Droke

The latest action by the Federal Reserve is part of a policy shift, the most important one in fact of the last five years. The Fed's plan for unwinding its quantitative easing (QE) stimulus coincides with the bottom of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation. It couldn't be happening at a better time and the results will be either very positive or extremely negative, depending on where you stand when the smoke clears.

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2014

Non-Farm Friday – U.S. Economy Is Not Working / Economics / Employment

By: PhilStockWorld

When is a job not a job?

When the job sucks! We've all had crappy jobs in our lives – something we stay in to pay the bills but has no chance of being a career. As you can see from the chart on the right, a lot of career Government jobs have disappeared over the past 4 years – the kind of jobs that held advancement and retirement and health benefits.

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2014

Stagflation and the Credit Cycle / Economics / Stagflation

By: Alasdair_Macleod

Stagflation: When the general level of prices rises due to the purchasing power of currency-money falling, instead of price inflation due to a general increase in demand.

The credit cycle that normally drives advanced economies through boom and bust is turning out to be different this time round. The boom between the Lehman bust and the one yet to come never got going, because of very high levels of existing debt. This condition will almost certainly lead to stagflation.

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Economics

Friday, May 02, 2014

Is China Economy Cracking? / Economics / China Economy

By: Investment_U

Sean Brodrick writes: Signs of a near-term slowdown in the Chinese economy are apparent. And China's economy is so large and intricate that any slowdown there could have a big impact on investors here in the U.S.

In particular, I'm concerned about:

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Economics

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

Europe and Deflation Paranoia / Economics / Deflation

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

There is a current incessant flow of articles warning us of the certain economic calamity if deflation is allowed to show its nose for even the briefest period of time. This ogre of deflation, we are told, must be defeated with the printing presses at all costs. Of course, the real objective of this fear mongering is to enable continued government theft through debasement. Every dollar printed is a government tax on cash balances.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 30, 2014

The Death of Deflation / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

If investors have learned nothing else from the events of the last five years, they’ve at least learned that fighting the Fed doesn’t pay.

Indeed, the biggest lesson of all since 2009 is that monetary liquidity is the single biggest determinant of future stock prices. Given a loose enough monetary policy, stock prices will always respond by going higher.


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Economics

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Economists Are Stupid, Useless And Dangerous / Economics / Economists

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Economists are stupid because they have studied economics. Which doesn’t mean they weren’t born stupid, but that’s hardly relevant. Economists are useless because, well, they have studied economics. And economists are dangerous because they have studied economics, and people still listen to them; entire government policies are built around what they say. Now, you may think: isn’t that a bit harsh?, but don’t worry, I have proof.

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Economics

Monday, April 28, 2014

Roubini: War in Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back into Recession / Economics / Global Economy

By: Bloomberg

In an interview with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle at the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles, California, Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini said, war in Ukraine could tip 'fragile' and 'uneven' Europe back into a recession, " I would say the last thing that the eurozone can afford and need right now is another shock coming from an increase in gas prices and or even a cut off of supply of gas coming from Russia to the Western European economies. That would tip the European economies back into a recession if that were to occur."

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Economics

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Killing the Maximum-Wage Myth / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

Julian Adorney writes: As Bill Maher indicates, the issue of a maximum wage is one that simply will not go away. The comedian and liberal pundit recently expressed support for a maximum wage of $300,000, arguing that wages for the bottom 90 percent of Americans stagnated while worker productivity rose. Greedy executives, in Maher’s scenario, are robbing the worker and seizing more than their fair share.

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Economics

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

U.S. Quarterly Economic Review - Optimism at the Fed / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently overoptimistic in its projections of US growth. They simply expected QE to be more stimulative than it has been, to the tune of about 6% over the past four years – a total of about $1 trillion that never materialized.

Given that dismal track record, our authors ask why we should believe the Fed’s prediction of 2.9% real GDP growth for 2014 and 3.4% for 2015 – particularly with QE being tapered into nonexistence.

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Economics

Friday, April 18, 2014

Cognitive Dissonance on Minimum Wages and Maximum Rents / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Gary Galles writes: “Many cities are pricey places to live.” That was the opening line and major premise of a recent Los Angeles Times opinion piece advocating that high-cost cities raise minimum wages to mitigate the problem. I was struck by the fact that for years, the exact same basis was used by the same left liberal groups to justify rent controls. Apparently, high costs of living, largely caused by a panoply of government taxes, regulations, and restrictions, justify still more government-imposed coercion in both the labor and housing markets. Unfortunately, those government “solutions” are not only based on flaws in basic economic logic, but they are mutually contradictory.

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Economics

Friday, April 18, 2014

The Sad State of the Economics Profession / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Frank_Hollenbeck

It is not an exaggeration to say the current reputation of economists is probably just below that of a used car salesman. The recent failures of economic policies to boost growth or employment have tarnished this image even more. This, however, is in sharp contrast to the past when economists were seen as the intellectual roadblock to popular misconceptions, bad ideas, or more importantly, government policies sold to the public on false assumptions. Popular slogans such as “protecting American jobs” play on nationalism, but in reality only serve special interests. The economist of the past would never have hesitated to highlight the fallacies in such reasoning.

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