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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

U.S. Economy Quarterly Review and Implications for 2014-2015 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for our Quarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury yields. That’s an important relationship, because long-term interest rates above nominal GDP growth (as they are now) tend to retard economic activity and vice versa.

The author adds that the average four-quarter growth rate of real GDP during the present recovery is 1.8%, well below the 4.2% average in all of the previous post-war expansions; and despite six years of federal deficits totaling $6.27 trillion and another $3.63 trillion in quantitative easing by the Fed, the growth rate of the economy continues to erode.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Never Mind Their Distrust of Economic Data and Forecasts; Austrians Can Help You Predict the Economy / Economics / Austrian Economics

By: F_F_Wiley

[O]f all the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. – From The Economist, July 16, 2009.

It’s been five years since the The Economist magazine published the critical commentary  excerpted above. In hindsight, the noted reputational damage was neither lasting nor spectacular. As of today, we’d say it’s almost non-existent.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Knock, Knock. It's Deflation. Deflation Who? Video / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast warns that the contracting U.S. economy signals deflation ahead

In June, the U.S. government, revising its previous number, reported that the economy shrank by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014.

The steep plunge caught the bulls by surprise.

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2014

Global Economy Is Deteriorating Fast / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Raul_I_Meijer

The insanity doesn’t just continue, it intensifies. The overriding idea is still that the more companies and individuals borrow, the better the economy goes. But that is nowhere near true. It may have been at some point in the past, but not now, not with debt levels at historic highs. Today’s problem is not that there is not enough credit or money available, as central banks try to make you believe, but that people are not spending what they have. Individuals are either maxed out or scared to be left with nothing, and companies see no opportunities for investing in productive projects (besides, they may well be maxed out too).

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Economics

Monday, July 14, 2014

Why Is Zero Economic Growth 'Unexpected' ? / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

Always Unexpected
Each monthly decline in leading economic indicators, when it happens in the Eurozone, as in the US or Japan, China, Brazil, India or elsewhere, is always “unexpected”. Why is this?

For example the March, April, May and June declines for the Eurozone were each time titled “unexpected” by newswires and mainstream media the month following each “surprise”. Taking the case of Reuters, it reported April 14  that Eurozone industrial output had fallen in March “for the first time since August” so this was able to be called unexpected. Then the decline continued in April.

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Economics

Sunday, July 13, 2014

Marc Faber: Africa is Not Going to Be Another Southeast Asia / Economics / Africa

By: Submissions

Georgi Ivanov writes: In the last Squawkonomics interview with Marc Faber, we addressed an entire range of questions impacting regions of the global economy, including one of the most tantalizing topics: will Africa become another Southeast Asia and become the new hotspot growth region of the global economy? After decades and centuries of predictions of an African rise, will it finally be Africa's turn for robust economic development?

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Economics

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

This Is Disgusting — And the Food Sounds Gross Too / Economics / Inflation

By: John_Rubino

It is by now generally understood, at least in the sound money community, that inflation is much higher than the government admits and that the true extent of the problem is being hidden in various ways. But the specifics keep getting more and more disturbing. Here’s a recent Phoenix Capital note (via Zero Hedge) on the adulteration of our “food.”

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Economics

Wednesday, July 09, 2014

Why Seattle’s Minimum Wage Hike Matters to Seniors / Economics / Wages

By: Don_Miller

The US is gearing up for mid-term elections this November 4—so much so that Rolling Stone announced the relaunch of the “Rock the Vote” campaign last month (according to one of the younger members of my team). And just like clockwork, minimum wage is making headlines again too. It’s déjà vu all over again.

At a breakfast some 20 years ago, I sat next to a prominent, high-ranking US senator now long retired. He showed us data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that every time the minimum wage went up, more unemployment followed. Businesses were forced to ship jobs offshore—whether they wanted to or not—and started looking for ways to automate low- or unskilled jobs.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Real Earnings of Private Employees Declined Again in May / Economics / Wages

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short. Here is a look at two key numbers in last week’s monthly employment report for June:

  • Average Hourly Earnings
  • Average Weekly Hours

The government has been tracking the data for Production and Nonsupervisory Employees for decades. But coverage of Total Private Employees only dates from March 2006.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 08, 2014

Inflation: Higher And Higher We Go / Economics / Inflation

By: Darryl_R_Schoon

In the end game, truth is found only at the margins

In  Time of the Vulture: How to Survive the Crisis and Prosper in the Process(2007, 2012 3rd edition), I wrote about inflation and its root cause:

In a credit-money system, over time the constant infusion of increasing amounts of credit will inevitably lead to higher and higher rates of inflation. Because common knowledge of this fact is not in the best interests of those benefiting from the system, it is hidden away. And in the US, hiding the real rate of inflation is done the old-fashioned way, by lying about it.

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Economics

Monday, July 07, 2014

What Is the Rate of Return on the Louisiana Purchase? / Economics / US Economy

By: David_Howden

David Howden and Daniel Fernández-Renau Atienza write: Everyone loves making a buck, including governments. Unfortunately, the reality of many “great deals,” especially in the history books, has today been inflated to mythical proportions.

While most countries throughout history expanded their frontiers through peaceful trade or the spoils of war, the United States purchased much of its land, mostly from foreign governments. Today several of these land purchases are immortalized as great financial coups for the country.

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2014

Investors and Austrian Economics / Economics / Global Economy

By: Robert_Blumen

Robert Blumen, a software engineer with a background in financial applications, recently spoke with the Mises Institute about the Austrian School’s growing influence among investors.

Mises Institute: In recent years, we’ve seen more and more Austrian-tinged economic analysis coming from investors like Mark Spitznagel and Jim Rogers, to just name two. As someone personally involved in the investment world, have you yourself seen growth in Austrian ideas among investors and similar professionals?

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2014

Why Abenomics Flopped - Class Warfare Saps the Economy / Economics / Japan Economy

By: Mike_Whitney

By every objective standard, Abenomics has been a complete flop. Household spending has plunged, wages have dropped for 23 months in a row, inflation is on the rise, the number of workers who can only find part-time jobs has ballooned to 38 percent, and most economists now expect 2nd quarter GDP to shrink to minus 4 percent or worse. So where’s the silver lining?

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2014

Christine Lagarde's Birkin Bag Of IMF Tricks / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andrew_McKillop

While Nobody's Watching
Christine Lagarde and the IMF chose the midst of the world football cup and the Iraq and Ukrainian crises as just the right moment to announce new “draconian plans” to solve the debt crisis of the developed countries. Dressed in her Hermes scarf and clutching her uber-expensive Jane Birkin-bag, she laid out the IMF Bagmen's plan, this week.

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Economics

Friday, July 04, 2014

John Williams Warns of Massive Inflation and Then Hyperiflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Videos

Jeff Weatherford of Sprott Money News, Interviews John Williams. (39.37)

He says; “The government has to address its long-term solvency issues if it’s going to survive, if it’s going to have any credibility in the rest of the world…We have ahead of us here probably the worst fundamentals ever facing the dollar…I don’t think things have ever been more negative.

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