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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

U.S. Real Disposable Income Per Capita Analysis / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: This morning I posted my latest Big Four update, which included today’s release of the January data for Real Personal Income Less Transfer Payments. Now let’s take a closer look at a rather different calculation of incomes: “Real” Disposable Personal Income Per Capita.

The first chart shows both the nominal per capita disposable income and the real (inflation-adjusted) equivalent since 2000. This indicator has been significantly disrupted by the bizarre but not unexpected oscillation caused by 2012 year-end tax strategies in expectation of tax hikes in 2013.

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Economics

Monday, March 03, 2014

Anti-Logic and the Keynesian Economic “Stimulus” / Economics / Economic Theory

By: William_Anderson

American political culture always seems to be “celebrating” the anniversary of something, be it JFK’s assassination (we just passed the 50th anniversary of that sad event) or the signing of some (mostly bad) legislation. The latest political activity to be enshrined with an anniversary is the so-called stimulus, the $800 billion monstrosity passed five years ago ostensibly to “put America back to work.”

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Economics

Monday, March 03, 2014

Is Bad Weather Behind Weak US Economic Trends? / Economics / US Economy

By: Frank_Shostak

Some key US economic data shows visible weakening. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index slumped to 46 in February from 56 in January.

The New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Empire State general business conditions index fell to 4.48 in February from 12.51 the month before.

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2014

What Can Nations Learn from Norway and Kuwait in Managing Sovereign Wealth Funds? / Economics / Sovereign Wealth Funds

By: Sam_Chee_Kong

To begin with what are Sovereign Wealth Funds? According to the Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, a SWF can be defined as follows.

“A Sovereign Wealth Fund entity is a state-owned investment fund established from balance of payment surpluses, official foreign exchange operations, the proceeds from privatizations, governmental transfer payments, fiscal surpluses and/or receipts resulting from resource exports”

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Economics

Saturday, March 01, 2014

Do U.S. Economic Reports Mean Anything This Time? / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Some of the Federal Reserve’s districts compile and release monthly economic reports for their regions.

In the last week or two, those reports were that the Fed’s Empire State (NY) Mfg Index plunged from 12.5 in January to 4.5 in February. The Fed’s Philadelphia Region Index plunged from a positive reading of + 9.4 in January to - 6.3 in February. The Dallas Fed’s Mfg Index dropped from 3.8 in January to 0.3 in February. The Richmond Fed’s Index plummeted from +12 in January to -6 in February.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

The High Price of Delaying the Debt Default / Economics / Global Debt Crisis 2014

By: Thorsten_Polleit

Credit is a wonderful tool that can help advance the division of labor, thereby increasing productivity and prosperity. The granting of credit enables savers to spread their income over time, as they prefer. By taking out loans, investors can implement productive spending plans that they would be unable to afford using their own resources.

The economically beneficial effects of credit can only come about, however, if the underlying credit and monetary system is solidly based on free-market principles. And here is a major problem for today’s economies: the prevailing credit and monetary regime is irreconcilable with the free market system.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Submissions

F. Wiley writes: For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements in this fashion would be guilty of a crime… The magnitude of the misrepresentation is breathtaking. - Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole, writing in the Wall Street Journal last April

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Economics

Monday, February 24, 2014

Disappointing U.S. Economic Data - Whether or Not it's the Weather / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street and Washington have summarily dismissed the recent spate of disappointing economic data by claiming it is solely based upon the weather. The equity market is 100% convinced that winter is to blame for the faltering economy; and that even if stocks have it all wrong, Ms. Yellen and co. will immediately print enough money to make everything ok.

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Economics

Sunday, February 23, 2014

The US Great Depression 1920/21 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Jonathan_Davis

Never heard of it?

Come on sure you have. You know of the Great Depression of the 1930s. So you must know of the Great Depression of 1920/21.

No?

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Economics

Friday, February 21, 2014

U.S. Economy Weather Impact Narrative Getting Confusing / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronan_Keenan

The “weather impact” debate has been ongoing for much of this year and looks set to continue for a while longer. Initially there seemed to be a clear narrative that colder-than-normal temperatures were slowing economic activity and markets seemed to gladly discount weak figures. But several data releases this week have brought confusion to the tidy story.

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Economics

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Deadly Deflation Myths / Economics / Deflation

By: Dan_Amerman

As will be demonstrated herein, using both historical and present-day events, key aspects of current deflationary theory can be characterized as the combination of 1) an absurdity; 2) a misunderstanding; and 3) an oversimplification; all working together to create 4) a serious danger for investors.

Few questions are of greater concern for investors than:  "will it be inflation or deflation that will dominate the coming years?" 

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Economics

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Venezuela Exchange Controls and Plunging Petroleum Production / Economics / Venezuela

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Foreign airlines have begun to restrict ticket sales in Venezuela. As the bolivars’ value evaporates, and with exchange controls in force, the airlines fear that the funds they have in Caracas will evaporate, too. By restricting ticket sales, the airlines will limit the amount of new money that is trapped behind the government’s wall of exchange controls.

Of course, President Nicolas Maduro isn’t the first autocrat to impose exchange controls, and he won’t be the last to impose these confiscatory policies. Indeed, the pedigree of exchange controls can be traced back to Plato, the father of statism. Inspired by Lycurgus of Sparta, Plato embraced the idea of an inconvertible currency as a means to preserve the autonomy of the state from outside interference.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Manufacturing Numbers Show Cause for Concern in China / Economics / China Economy

By: Submissions

Richard Cox writes: As the global recovery continues to progress, investors as keenly focused on developments in early Asia as a means for gauging whether or not the progress in economic growth is being seen in all areas.  Without clear evidence that emerging markets in Asia have participated in the improvements, there is less reason to believe that the global recovery is moving forward as strongly as had been thought previously.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

China Fooled the World (But It Cannot Last) / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank emailed a pair of interesting links on the explosion of investment and debt in China.

First consider the BBC report How China Fooled the World by Robert Peston.

Robert Peston travels to China to investigate how this mighty economic giant could actually be in serious trouble. China is now the second largest economy in the world and for the last 30 years China's economy has been growing at an astonishing rate. While Britain has been in the grip of the worst recession in a generation, China's economic miracle has wowed the world.

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Economics

Monday, February 17, 2014

Europe in the Calm Before the Next Financial Storm / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: MISES

Andrew Cullen writes: Austrian business cycle theory explains that the “bust” phase of that cycle is created by extension of the cheap and plentiful credit by a fractional reserve banking (FRB) system. A FRB system is inherently fragile during the bust phase as its leverage (lending as a percentage of its own capital) exposes the banks to the emerging tsunami of non-performing loans and impaired collateral that are the manifestations of malinvestment.

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