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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Reviving the ‘Real World’ Scenario That’s Disappeared from Government Reports / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Submissions

F. Wiley writes: For 50 years or so the federal government has deliberately and to an increasing extent misstated probable future budget deficits. Democrats and Republicans are guilty. The White House is guilty. And so is Congress. Private firms that deliberately misrepresent their financial statements in this fashion would be guilty of a crime… The magnitude of the misrepresentation is breathtaking. - Former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole, writing in the Wall Street Journal last April

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Economics

Monday, February 24, 2014

Disappointing U.S. Economic Data - Whether or Not it's the Weather / Economics / US Economy

By: Michael_Pento

Wall Street and Washington have summarily dismissed the recent spate of disappointing economic data by claiming it is solely based upon the weather. The equity market is 100% convinced that winter is to blame for the faltering economy; and that even if stocks have it all wrong, Ms. Yellen and co. will immediately print enough money to make everything ok.

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Economics

Sunday, February 23, 2014

The US Great Depression 1920/21 / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Jonathan_Davis

Never heard of it?

Come on sure you have. You know of the Great Depression of the 1930s. So you must know of the Great Depression of 1920/21.

No?

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Economics

Friday, February 21, 2014

U.S. Economy Weather Impact Narrative Getting Confusing / Economics / US Economy

By: Ronan_Keenan

The “weather impact” debate has been ongoing for much of this year and looks set to continue for a while longer. Initially there seemed to be a clear narrative that colder-than-normal temperatures were slowing economic activity and markets seemed to gladly discount weak figures. But several data releases this week have brought confusion to the tidy story.

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Economics

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Deadly Deflation Myths / Economics / Deflation

By: Dan_Amerman

As will be demonstrated herein, using both historical and present-day events, key aspects of current deflationary theory can be characterized as the combination of 1) an absurdity; 2) a misunderstanding; and 3) an oversimplification; all working together to create 4) a serious danger for investors.

Few questions are of greater concern for investors than:  "will it be inflation or deflation that will dominate the coming years?" 

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Economics

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Venezuela Exchange Controls and Plunging Petroleum Production / Economics / Venezuela

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Foreign airlines have begun to restrict ticket sales in Venezuela. As the bolivars’ value evaporates, and with exchange controls in force, the airlines fear that the funds they have in Caracas will evaporate, too. By restricting ticket sales, the airlines will limit the amount of new money that is trapped behind the government’s wall of exchange controls.

Of course, President Nicolas Maduro isn’t the first autocrat to impose exchange controls, and he won’t be the last to impose these confiscatory policies. Indeed, the pedigree of exchange controls can be traced back to Plato, the father of statism. Inspired by Lycurgus of Sparta, Plato embraced the idea of an inconvertible currency as a means to preserve the autonomy of the state from outside interference.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Manufacturing Numbers Show Cause for Concern in China / Economics / China Economy

By: Submissions

Richard Cox writes: As the global recovery continues to progress, investors as keenly focused on developments in early Asia as a means for gauging whether or not the progress in economic growth is being seen in all areas.  Without clear evidence that emerging markets in Asia have participated in the improvements, there is less reason to believe that the global recovery is moving forward as strongly as had been thought previously.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

China Fooled the World (But It Cannot Last) / Economics / China Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank emailed a pair of interesting links on the explosion of investment and debt in China.

First consider the BBC report How China Fooled the World by Robert Peston.

Robert Peston travels to China to investigate how this mighty economic giant could actually be in serious trouble. China is now the second largest economy in the world and for the last 30 years China's economy has been growing at an astonishing rate. While Britain has been in the grip of the worst recession in a generation, China's economic miracle has wowed the world.

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Economics

Monday, February 17, 2014

Europe in the Calm Before the Next Financial Storm / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: MISES

Andrew Cullen writes: Austrian business cycle theory explains that the “bust” phase of that cycle is created by extension of the cheap and plentiful credit by a fractional reserve banking (FRB) system. A FRB system is inherently fragile during the bust phase as its leverage (lending as a percentage of its own capital) exposes the banks to the emerging tsunami of non-performing loans and impaired collateral that are the manifestations of malinvestment.

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Economics

Monday, February 17, 2014

The Economic Singularity - Stuck in a Liquidity Trap / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

I fully intended to write today about a recently released academic paper that illustrates nearly every bad idea currently being bandied about in the field of economics. The insidious part is that the paper is considered mainstream and noncontroversial. Simply reading it required me to up my blood pressure medicine dosage. It is going to take me a little longer to finish that letter, and I realized that it needs a certain setup – one that coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I conveniently wrote a few months ago and included in the book Code Red.

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Economics

Sunday, February 16, 2014

Global Economy Economic Stink-Tanks / Economics / Global Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

There’s an old quote along the lines of if you’re going to lie, make it a big one, repeat it like crazy, and eventually, people will regard it as truth. Truth is awfully cheap these days. For as buffaloed as most people are with the state of economic affairs not only in the United States, but also in the rest of the world, you’d think they still believed the Earth was flat.

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Economics

Saturday, February 15, 2014

How Special-Interest Groups Benefit from Minimum Wage Laws / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

Gary M. Galles writes: Those campaigning for a substantial jump in the minimum wage all assert that the purpose is to help working families. Unfortunately, careful students of the evidence come to a different conclusion. As Mark Wilson summarized it, “evidence from a large number of academic studies suggests that minimum wage increases don’t reduce poverty levels.”

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Economics

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

The Broken Limb and Burst Pipe Economic Fallacies / Economics / Economic Theory

By: James_Quinn

Economics is haunted by more fallacies than any other study known to man. This is no accident. While certain public policies would in the long run benefit everybody, other policies would benefit one group only at the expense of all other groups. The group that would benefit by such policies, having such a direct interest in them, will argue for them plausibly and persistently. It will hire the best buyable minds to devote their whole time to presenting its case. And it will finally either convince the general public that its case is sound, or so befuddle it that clear thinking on the subject becomes next to impossible.

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Economics

Monday, February 10, 2014

The Circular Economy – Roundabouts And Toboggans For Growth / Economics / Energy Resources

By: Andrew_McKillop

Waste Dumps to Resource Mountains

The Sochi Winter Games waste dump could interest future corporate geologists a lot more than the Chernobyl sarcophage. Leaked reports and furtive newsreel footage shows a pyramid 35-stories high, thinly and partly covered in soil, more than 150 metres wide at its base. And growing. Leakage from the Sochi pyramid of waste is, of course, toxic but also contains a hard-to-believe mix and mingle of metals, minerals and organic compounds including gold and with in fact little surprise, uranium and also of course pesticides, chrome hexafluoride, dioxin and similar deadly poisons with a high dollar value per unit weight – either as a resource or as a threat to society needing expensive disposal.

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Economics

Sunday, February 09, 2014

Most Dangerous Economic Era, The Great Divergence: Productivity and Wages / Economics / Earnings

By: John_Mauldin

"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

"Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."

– From an essay by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen"

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