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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, February 12, 2010

Antal Fekete Fantasy Land Monetary Theory of Hyperinflation That Creates Bonds Boom and Falling CPI / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Gary_North

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAntal Fekete has published an article, "There Is No Business Like Bond Business." It was published on the 24hgold site, which my site links to (my gold price chart). Some of you may have read it. Some of you may be confused. Let me de-confuse you.

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Economics

Friday, February 12, 2010

Misguided Economists Say U.S. Unemployment Rate Has Peaked / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEconomists are giddy once again, following news that weekly unemployment claims dropped to 440,000.

"In the week ending Feb. 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 440,000, a decrease of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 483,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,500, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of 469,500."

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Economics

Friday, February 12, 2010

Global Business Cycle Bottoms But Economic Recovery Remains Mixed / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Donald_W_Dony

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGlobal data continues to reinforce the idea that the world business cycle has bottomed and that growth is starting to advance. Economic numbers stress that after six quarters of steady contraction, a floor appears to have formed in mid-2009. Most global economies have felt expansion for the last six months. But this increase is not well divided. Domestic developed nations have emerged from the depths at a considerably slower pace than many Asian nations. The USA has been dwarfed by the new Asian economies of China and India. This trend, going into 2010 and 2011, will likely reshape the trading patterns of the world from west to east.

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Economics

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Greece Soverign Debt Crisis, The Way Forward, if Any! / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Vishal_Damor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMorgan Stanley did quick and extensive scenario analysis along with an update of the Greece situation. Presented below are key highlights and my read.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Euro Trashed? / Economics / Euro

By: John_Browne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European experiment with a trans-sovereign currency is facing its first acid test. The flashpoint today is Greece, which looks set to default on its debt barring some outside intervention. While many commentators have been squawking about the immediate crisis as if it were the end of life on Earth, I would like to zoom out and discuss the history and longer-term outlook for the euro and its parent, the European Union.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Economic Depression is Not Over / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Frank_Shostak

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleReal GDP increased at an annual rate of 5.7% in Q4 after rising by 2.2% in Q3 — the quickest pace in more than six years. This was above Wall Street economists' forecast for a 4.6% increase in Q4. The yearly rate of growth of real GDP climbed to 0.1% in Q4 from −2.6% in Q3. The yearly rate of growth of GDP at current prices, i.e., nominal GDP increased by 0.8% in Q4 from −2.1% in the prior quarter.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Southern Europe Debt Crisis, Economies Teetering in the Brink of New Recession / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Gary_North

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe euro is the focus of attention these days. This is because of a fiscal crisis in Greece, and looming crises in Portugal and Spain. Italy could follow.

What is the problem? Greece is running a huge deficit in the range of 12.7% of its Gross Domestic Product. The investment world regards a deficit of this magnitude as unsustainable. There are rumors of default.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Ceridian - UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: Guy_Lerner

The Ceridian - UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index tracks fuel purchases at 7000 truck stops around the country, and the idea is that the index will mirror industrial production providing a timelier snapshot into the state of the economy. The index was developed by the UCLA Anderson Center in conjunction with credit card processor Ceridian.

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Economics

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

The Inflationary Economic Depression, PIIGS Propaganda Drives Scared Money Into the Dollar / Economics / Great Depression II

By: Bob_Chapman

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe inflationary depression still dominates and probably will continue to do so. In time the stimulus will fail to work and the world will slip into total insolvency and deflationary depression. The old M3 is about 3%, but we still have $23.7 trillion floating around. Not only is the US bankrupt, but also so is the rest of the world. It is now only a question of when the dominos will fall. It looks like the first wave in the collapse of the bear market rally is underway. Bonds will follow with higher interest rates and eventually commodities will be hit. Only gold and silver will survive, as the bankers and Wall Street complete their destruction of the world economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Stock Market Spikes Higher as Euro Zone Agrees to Rescue Greece / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Trader_Mark

It was looking like another failed day, as the opening gap up was being sold furiously.... but about 20 minutes ago news hits that "it's official baby!"  Via Reuters

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Economics

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Euro-Zone Debt Default Risk Crisis, "UR ALL PIGS FROM HELL!” / Economics / Global Debt Crisis

By: Gordon_T_Long

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhether you’re in Central Europe, such as Ukraine or Romania, the Med countries such as Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain, or from Hungary to the Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia or Lithuania, you all have one common problem ---The hell that is the Euro!

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Economics

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

Inflation or Deflation, Which “ation” is This? / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Graham_Summers

I’ve been receiving a number of emails lately asking me whether I am a deflationist or an inflationist. Just as often I am asked if we’re in a deflationary environment or inflationary environment.

My answer to both questions is “yes.”

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Economics

Monday, February 08, 2010

US Bankruptcies Rise 7% Year over Year / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Trader_Mark

Despite enjoying 2 full quarters of 'recovery', and coming off a hefty 5.7% GDP quarter - the reality is not so happy down on Main Street (business).  Keep in mind the year over year comparisons are versus the period of time (fall 2008/winter 2008-2009) when the recession was at its deepest, so to see continued "growth" in this area is certainly not a green shoot.  However, I am sure it can be explained away as all bad news is... let me think of an appropriate head in sand response.  Ah yes... let's throw this on the pile of "it's a lagging indicator". Via Reuters:

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Economics

Monday, February 08, 2010

2010 Global Economic Growth to Disappoint / Economics / Global Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore we get to this week's Outside the Box, a quick note about my writing on Greece in last Saturday's letter. I made the point that if Greece defaults it does not necessarily mean they have to leave the EU, any more than if Illinois defaulted they would have to leave the United States. Greece could still use the euro and life could go on. EXCEPT. The markets would no longer lend the Greek government money at anything close to a livable rate. Greece would be forced to balance its budget. Since they are part of the euro, devaluing the currency is not an option. The results of controlling their fiscal deficit would not initially be pretty and would almost insure a serious prolonged recession or depression in the Greek area, with fall out in the region. It would be a sad decade for Greece. But in the long run, it is a better option than default.

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Economics

Monday, February 08, 2010

U.S. 11% Unemployment Coming by May? / Economics / Recession 2008 - 2010

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOver the weekend I received an email from Irishscot2, a poster on MarketWatch, regarding seasonal adjustments to the unemployment rate.

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