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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

The Self-Defeat of the Keynesian Cross / Economics / Economic Theory

By: MISES

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePredrag Rajsic writes: The Austrian business-cycle theory, initiated by Ludwig von Mises and further developed and elaborated by F.A. Hayek, is by many considered the cornerstone of this school of thought. However, in 1998, Paul Krugman plainly dismissed the theory as not "worthy of serious study."

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Economics

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Inflation, The Runaway Train / Economics / Inflation

By: Kieran_Osborne

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleInflationary risks have seemingly fallen out of the mindset of many investors recently, with the European debt crisis causing many to reevaluate their outlook for global economic growth in concert with record low headline CPI numbers being released. Despite this, gold, traditionally a hedge against inflation, continues to move up in price. Is this dynamic inconsistent? We don’t think so. Of course, some of gold’s price movement may reflect its safety aspect, given renewed concerns over the long-term health of the economy, but in our opinion, inflationary concerns are very much valid and should be front and center of any investment strategy going forward.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Are We Trending Towards Deflation or in It? / Economics / Deflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul Krugman is worried we are Trending Toward Deflation.

Inflation has been falling, but how close are we to deflation? I found myself wondering that after observing John Makin’s combusting coiffure, his prediction that we might see deflation this year.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

UK Inflation Falls to CPI 3.2%, Precisely inline with 2010 Forecast / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK inflation for June 2010 registered a small drop from 3.4% to 3.2%, though remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3%, thus the BoE Governor, Mervyn King will write yet another letter to repeat that the high rate of inflation is just "temporary", though when does "temporary" high inflation stop being temporary? 6 months? a year? 2 years? as the country sleep walks into stagflation with all of the consequences for wage earners and savers.

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Economics

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

How to Fix the U.S. Economy? / Economics / Economic Stimulus

By: Mike_Whitney

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere are remedies for recession, and the remedies are well known. But fixing the economy requires special medicine, fiscal stimulus, and if the patient does not take the medicine, he will not improve. It's not enough to have the medicine sitting on one's nightstand. It must be ingested before recovery can begin.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Recession, Deflation and Deficits Economic Outlook 2010 / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI look forward at the beginning of every quarter to receiving the Quarterly Outlook from Hoisington Investment Management. They have been prominent proponents of the view that deflation is the problem, stemming from a variety of factors, and write about their views in a very clear and concise manner. This quarter's letter is no exception, where they once again delve into the history books to bring up fresh and relevant lessons for today. This is a must read piece.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

U.S. Economy Dancing On Quicksand / Economics / US Economy

By: Bob_Clark

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDo not attempt to adjust the picture. We control the horizontal and the vertical.
(Old outer limits TV show intro)
 
Bernanke speaking to the heads of the reserve banks.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Deflation becomes the Dominant Economic Trend / Economics / Deflation

By: Clif_Droke

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOne of the abiding fears since the government stimulus effort began in earnest last year has been the fear that runaway inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Legions of market commentators have predicted the return of inflation in spite of the deflationary environment we find ourselves in.

Can we reasonably expect a return of inflation in the foreseeable future? The Kress Cycles say “No!” and tell us to expect just the opposite, namely a deflationary trend. This has certainly been the dominant economic trend since the credit crisis of 2008 and, in some areas, even before then.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Obama Failed Economic Policy, No Recovery Without Job Creation / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere will be no recovery without jobs, and there will be no net job creation if small businesses, especially startups, do not lead the way.

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Economics

Monday, July 12, 2010

Retail Sales Signal Economic Recovery Or the Bleeding Edge of the Great Recession's Next Down Cycle? / Economics / US Economy

By: Adam_Lass

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIs Retail the "guiding light" of the recovery – or the bleeding edge of the Great Recession's next down cycle?

"It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..."

I know it's a bit saddle-worn, but old Chas. Dickens was one heck of a student of humanity, and his opening to A Tale of Two Cities, what with its dichotomous wisdom, foolishness, belief and incredulity, just seemed too apropos to pass on today.

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Economics

Sunday, July 11, 2010

It’s “Chapter 66” as U.S. States Face De Facto Bankruptcy / Economics / US Debt

By: Justice_Litle

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA number of U.S. states are facing bankruptcy – in fact if not in name – with Illinois and California leading the way.

When an individual goes bankrupt in the United States, it’s usually a Chapter 7. When a business goes under, it’s Chapter 11. Farmers have a Chapter 12, and there is a more complex individual option known as Chapter 13.

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Economics

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Economic Austerity or Stimulus Without Significant Reform Is Madness / Economics / Market Regulation

By: Jesse

The economy will not 'cure itself' through benign neglect and liquidationism, because it did not get this way by itself. It did not suffer an accident, or an act of God. This is an unfortunate application of the principle of human healing after an injury to the economy.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Thoughts on U.S. Employment Numbers and Double-Dip Recessions / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt's More Than Just Birth/Death
It's a Seasonal Thing
A Breakdown in Communications
Some Thoughts on Double-Dip Recessions

Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment. And I answer a few questions about my thought that there is a 60% chance for a recession in 2011, and why there is a 40% chance we won't. What could change those numbers? We explore that and more, while I suffer from the injustice that LeBron will play with Wade and Bosh. Where's a nonproliferation treaty when you need it?

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

IMF World Economic Growth Forecast Outlook Update / Economics / Global Economy

By: EconGrapher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis week we look at the languishing US consumer credit figures, and the slowing non-manufacturing PMI, then examine the continued string of strong jobs growth in Australia, followed by a wrap-up of some of the key monetary policy decisions this week, and a review of the IMF World Economic Outlook update.

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Economics

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Potholes in the Economic Recovery, U.S. GDP Forecast / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleFor various reasons that will be discussed below, we are lowering our 2010 real gross domestic product (GDP) forecast. At the same time, we are publicly unveiling our 2011 forecast - admittedly not nearly as anxiously awaited as LeBron's revelation. For the second half of 2010, we now are projecting annualized real GDP growth of 1.8% versus our May forecast of 2.5%. This lower second-half projection and the Commerce Department's revised lower first quarter growth reduces our Q4/Q4 2010 real GDP growth forecast to 2.2% versus May's forecast of 2.7%. As a result of our reduced 2010 real GDP growth projection, the forecast for the unemployment rate has been increased. For Q4:2010, we now place the average unemployment rate at 10.3% versus the May forecast of 10.0%. Our Q4/Q4 2011 forecast for real GDP growth is 3.2%.

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