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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

U.S. Weekly Unemployment Claims Hit 500,000 Bearing Every Economist's Forecast / Economics / US Economy

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOnce again the pile of overoptimistic economist estimates continues to mount. Today, weekly unemployment claims hit 500,000 exceeding every forecast. This is (at minimum) the 4th time since March every economist was overly optimistic regarding unemployment claims. Nicely done guys.

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Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Protection From a Double-Dip Economic Recession Going Global / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Money_Morning

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleJason Simpkins writes: The last time the U.S. economy suffered through a double-dip recession, this country was struggling to overcome the fallout from an Arab oil embargo, Vietnam War-era deficits, and an inflationary spiral that just wouldn't let go.

That 1981-82 double-dip downturn - the result of an economic "shock treatment" aimed at curing those ills - consisted of two recessions that were separated by a single quarter of growth.

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Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

How to Protect Your Wealth From U.S. Debt Economic Stagnation Japan Style / Economics / US Economy

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: Grim unemployment figures, growing worries about crushing debt loads and the apparent absence of any inflation are causing many investors to ask a tough question: Is the U.S. economy catching the "Japan disease," the dreaded and dreadful malaise that has left the onetime Asian powerhouse in a stagnant state since 1990?

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Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Tea, Tramadol and Today's Great Depression / Economics / Inflation

By: Adrian_Ash

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Even at home there is generally a cup of tea going – a 'nice cup of tea' – and Father, who has been out of work since 1929, is temporarily happy because he has a sure tip for the Cesarewitch..."
  - George Orwell, The Road to Wigan Pier (London, 1936)

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Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Prepare in August for Hyperinflationary Holidays / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

Ben Bernanke and the rest of the Federal Reserve are priming the pump for what could by a hyper-inflationary Christmas.  While the Fed continues to build a pile of kindling, the spark could very well be this holiday shopping season.

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Economics

Thursday, August 19, 2010

U.S. Heading for Currency Destruction Debt Default Great Depression / Economics / US Debt

By: The_Gold_Report

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAs the world sinks deeper into what he calls the Greater Depression, Casey Research Chairman Doug Casey sees default on the U.S. national debt as inevitable—albeit probably in the guise of currency destruction. He anticipates further contraction in real estate, particularly on the commercial front. As long as stocks remain overpriced, he'll shy away from equities—except perhaps in favored sectors such as gold. In fact, in this exclusive interview with The Gold Report, Doug posits that gold juniors might "go up by an order of magnitude or more, even while most other stocks are going down."

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Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Affording the Unemployed / Economics / Economic Theory

By: J_M_Finegold_Catalan

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhile the unemployment rate continues to hover between 9 and 10 percent, the average amount of time wage earners remain unemployed has skyrocketed to previously unrecorded levels.[1] Keynesians fear that a weak fiscal and monetary response will allow the presently cyclically unemployed to become so permanently.[2] UC Berkeley professor Bradford DeLong puts it briefly, "Long-term unemployment has a way of turning into structural unemployment."[3]

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Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

18 Signs That America Is Rotting Right In Front Of Our Eyes / Economics / US Economy

By: Pravda

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSometimes it isn't necessary to quote facts and figures about government debt, unemployment and the trade deficit in order to convey how badly America is decaying. The truth is that millions of Americans can watch America rotting right in front of their eyes by stepping out on their front porches. Record numbers of homes have been foreclosed on and in some of the most run down cities as many as a third of all houses have been abandoned.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

U.S. Bank Credit Increases a Healthy 8.3%, But One Month Does Not Make a Trend / Economics / US Economy

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn July, for only the second time in the past 21 months, U.S. commercial bank total credit (loans and securities) increased (see Chart 1). And it was a healthy increase at 8.3% annualized. Obviously, we do not know whether this is the beginning of an upward trend in bank credit. But if it is, then we feel a lot more confident about our 2011 real GDP forecast, which has the economy's growth rate picking up. The primary assumption underlying our forecast of faster real GDP growth in 2011 is a resumption in the growth of bank credit.

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Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Welcome to the Muddle Ages of the U.S. Economic Recovery / Economics / Economic Recovery

By: EconGrapher

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore diving into the analysis, a theme occurred to me the other day; more and more the economic data from the US is looking confused. There are some parts of the economy that are showing some relatively promising signs e.g. manufacturing, but then there are other parts (e.g. consumers, housing, etc) which say - "you know, this recovery... it's not that great, things are still hard!" And thus we are at the muddle ages of the post-great-recession recovery. And so, I was just looking at the US total bank assets statistics, and there were a few noteworthy standouts in the data:

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Economics

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Peter Schiff Says Dr. Keynes Killed the Patient / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Peter_Schiff

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA morbidly obese gentleman labored into Dr. Hayek's office suffering from severe chest pain. The patient also complained that he was unable to consume his usual 10,000 calorie-per-day diet; in fact, he was feeling so sick that he could barely scarf down 9,000 calories. He plead that his love for food remained as strong as ever, but his body just wasn't keeping up with his demands.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

UK Inflation CPI 3.1%, RPI 4.8% for July, Bank of England Forecast Was for CPI 1.7% / Economics / Inflation

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleUK inflation for July 2010 dipped marginally from CPI 3.2% to 3.1%, remaining stubbornly above the Bank of England's upper limit of 3% and target of 2%, despite virtually 8 months of mantra from the Governor, Mervyn King that high inflation was just temporary and imminently expected to fall to below the 2% target. The more recognised RPI measure fell from 5% to 4.8% and which compares against average pay rises of 2% which illustrates the squeeze that ordinary people are on especially as taxes rise and state services are cut. The BoE governor wrote yet another full of excuses letter to the Chancellor, George Osbourne as to why the Bank of England is failing in its primary objective of controlling inflation.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Recession Batters State Budgets Which Could Slow Economic Recovery / Economics / US Economy

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere were a lot of questions last week when I wrote about public pensions. So for this week’s Outside the Box, I offer you some more information about how bad the state deficit situation is, and for your specific state. States are having to cut more than 1% of national GDP in fiscal 2011, as federal stimulus money is slowly drying up. And that is just states. Local municipalities and schools have a similar problem. And then add on the possibility of the Bush tax cuts going away and that is a very serious situation. It is why I am so concerned and vocal about the need for the Bush tax cuts to be extended for at least one year until the economy is growing above stall speed. The headwinds from cities and states are severe, as you can see.

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Economics

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Am I A Bit Too Pessemistic on the U.S. Economy? / Economics / US Economy

By: Matthew_Ehrlich

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleA Follow Up To ‘Us Economic Outlook Update’ - I have often said that the best way to truly learn and understand something is to try to teach it. That way, you have to deal with the questions that come from a wide variety of different views. Presenting an article, similarly evokes questions that make us dig deeper to better define or improve our explanation. Several comments I received to my article “U.S. Economic Outlook Update, Is the Downturn Finally Over, if not, When it will end?” http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21778.html said that I was way too pessimistic and that real estate bubbles usually last only a few years. They also questioned weather housing or employment were key issues to the recession as opposed to financial institutions causing the whole mess. So, here is my deeper explanation of why I think that this time it’s different and the intertwined housing/employment relationship has dictated the outcome.

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Economics

Monday, August 16, 2010

Deflation, the First Step is to Understand It / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"Fed's Bullard Raises Specter of Japanese-Style Deflation," read a July 29 Washington Post headline.

When the St. Louis Fed Chief speaks, people listen. Now that deflation -- something that EWI's president Robert Prechter has been warning about for several years -- is making mainstream news headlines, is it too late to prepare?

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