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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, June 20, 2014

Euro-zone Blaming Deflation / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Alasdair_Macleod

With the Eurozone going to the extreme of negative interest rates and the IMF belatedly revising downwards their expectations of US economic growth, deflation is now the favoured buzzword. It is time to untangle myth from reality and put deflation in context.

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Economics

Friday, June 20, 2014

Global Drag Threatens Worst U.S. Export Performance in Over 60 Years / Economics / US Economy

By: F_F_Wiley

Ever since an über-strong U.S. dollar crushed the export sector in the mid-1980s, the U.S. economy hasn’t looked quite the same.

Exports picked up towards the end of the decade, helped along by the G-7’s historic 1985 powwow at New York’s Plaza Hotel, which led to a coordinated effort to slam back the dollar. Nonetheless, some export industries never fully recovered.

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Economics

Friday, June 20, 2014

U.S. Economy Is Still in the High-Danger Zone / Economics / US Economy

By: Don_Miller

I hate being the bearer of bad news.

I remember the one and only time in my life I agreed to umpire a Little League game behind the plate. My youngest son was on the mound, and his older brother came to bat. The count went to 3-2, and I realized I had a huge knot in my stomach.

I said to myself, “God, please let him swing and hit the ball!” And he did. I don’t even recall where it went; I was just thankful I didn’t have to make a call that would have meant bad news for one of them.

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Economics

Thursday, June 19, 2014

The Fed Just Lost Any Shred of Credibility on Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: EconMatters

Those High Chicken Prices are just Noise – Tell that to the Cashier

The Fed today in their press conference lost any credibility on a number of issues, and it really goes to show that they have no clue what they are doing at this point. First they called the overheating inflation in the economy Noise, yes you heard right NOISE which is now showing up even in the watered down indexes used to track it by the Fed, and already above their target of 2% on a year over year basis and rising, (wait until you see the next two month`s CPI reports on a spike in gasoline prices as we enter the summer driving season).

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Economics

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Even the Feds Admit Minimum Wages Cause Unemployment / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

Nicholas Freiling writes: Minimum wage doesn’t apply to everyone.

When Congress first established minimum wage in the Fair Labor Standards Act of 1938, it left a loophole for businesses that employ people with disabilities.

The Secretary, to the extent necessary to prevent curtailment of opportunities for employment, shall by regulation or order provide for the employment, under special certificates, of individuals ... whose earning or productive capacity is impaired by age, physical or mental deficiency, or injury, at wages which are lower than the minimum wage.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

A Crash Is the Economic System Fixing Itself / Economics / Financial Crash

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Just a bunch of numbers Reuters published today. Read and weep. While remembering that this spring, after that horrible winter that threw the recovery so terribly off course, would see pent-up demand go crazy. That after the Q1 GDP growth, which has by now been revised to -2% after initially having been predicted to be in the 3%+ range, Q2 would certainly, according to pundits, economists and government agencies, top 3%, if not more. We already know for a fact that’s not going to happen. Unless the US grows faster in June than China did in its heyday.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

U.S. Unemployment - They’re Lying To Us / Economics / Unemployment

By: John_Rubino

One of the frustrating things about the monthly US jobs report is the way everyone focuses on the wrong number. The headline says “unemployment falls…” which sounds great, while the small print, which almost no one seems to read, explains that most of the improvement is due to people dropping out of the labor force. The number of new jobs created is frequently small or negative.

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Economics

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

IMF Christine Lagarde Lagarde - U.S. Economy Not in a Downward Spiral / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Christine Lagarde, International Monetary Fund Managing Director, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene today about the IMF’s forecast cut for U.S. GDP growth in 2014, how she views the U.S. economy on a global scale and French politics. She also explains why the IMF recommends an increase in the U.S. minimum wage to kick start growth.

Lagarde said, "We have revised downward the 2014 numbers, but we do not think that it will be a downward spiral. We believe that 2015 will be up 3 percent." 

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Economics

Monday, June 16, 2014

The Data Is Clear: Free Markets Reduce Poverty / Economics / Wages

By: MISES

D.W. MacKenzie writes: Some Catholic clergy have, once again, denounced supporters of laissez-faire capitalism. Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga claims that the free market economy is “a new idol” which creates inequality, excludes the poor, and that “this economy kills.” Cardinal Maradiaga does not speak alone. He quoted Pope Francis in his recent remarks and claimed that since the Pope “grew up in Argentina,” he“has a profound knowledge of the life of the poor.”

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Economics

Sunday, June 15, 2014

The Busted Myth Of War And Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Raul_I_Meijer

A strange point of view is expressed in George Mason University economics professor Tyler Cowen’s NY Times article ‘The Lack of Major Wars May Be Hurting Economic Growth’, strange in more ways than just the obvious ones. Of course we find it counterintuitive to link growth to warfare. And of course we don’t like to make a link like that. But there’s a lot more here than meets the eye. For one thing, the age-old truth that correlation does not imply causality, something Cowen hardly seems to consider at all. Which is curious, and certainly makes his arguments carry a whole lot less weight, and interest. It makes his whole article just about entirely one-dimensional.

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Economics

Friday, June 13, 2014

Debt is No Salvation / Economics / US Debt

By: Peter_Schiff

Thus far 2014 has been a fertile year for really stupid economic ideas. But of all the half-baked doozies that have come down the pike (the perils of "lowflation," Thomas Piketty's claims about capitalism creating poverty, and President Obama's "pay as you earn" solution to student debt), an idea hatched last week by CNBC's reliably ridiculous Steve Liesman may in fact take the cake. In diagnosing the causes of the continued malaise in the U.S. economy he explained, "the problem is that consumers are not taking on enough debt." And that "historically the U.S. economy has been built on consumer credit." His conclusion: Consumers must be encouraged to borrow more money and spend it. Given that Liesman is CNBC's senior economic reporter, I would hate to see the ideas the junior people come up with.

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Economics

Friday, June 13, 2014

The Great Myth of Money Velocity / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Dr_Jeff_Lewis

The missing variable in the great monetary equation is money velocity. We hear it over and over again, "There is no money velocity." And therefore, inflation cannot be a problem and is not. 

Yet, there is a great divergence between the conventional financial media and the public who goes to the supermarket. The financial media swallows whole the official artifice that inflation is near-zero while ‘J.Q. Public’ sees his/her grocery costs, health insurance, etc. rising by leaps and bounds.

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Economics

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Unemployment and A Tale of Two Financial Crises / Economics / Unemployment

By: MISES

D.W. MacKenzie writes: The latest GDP report indicates a slowdown in overall economic activity in the first quarter of 2014. Apologists for the Obama administration attribute the recent slowdown to unusual winter weather. Some have even suggested that the first-quarter slowdown sets the stage for rapid economic growth for the remainder of this year: there is pent up demand and untapped potential productivity, they claim. Mobilization of unemployed resources and satisfaction of unmet demands could, in the remainder of 2014, translate into a faster annual rate of GDP growth, perhaps 3.5 percent. The flaws of this argument should be obvious. One can just as easily argue that the much larger slowdown of 2008 set the stage for fast growth in the 2009-2013 time frame. The 2008 crisis left us with much greater pent up demand and untapped productivity. Yet the recovery that began in 2009 nearly stalled in 2010 and has been extraordinarily slow. Why has the recovery been so very slow?

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Economics

Thursday, June 12, 2014

Death Cross For Global Economic Growth / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Andrew_McKillop

The Perfect Storm
World Bank estimates and forecasts of economic growth are as slippy and always-cut-back as IMF forecasts. They share the same “optimistic cognitive bias”. The Bank's latest forecasts, issued Tuesday 10 June, used the terms “bumpy start to 2014”, nearly 6 months through the year, and talked about “cold winter conditions” slowing growth in “several countries”. Not in Europe. It had one of its warmest winters for decades – and growth declined in Europe, also!

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Economics

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Peak Pollution: China Aims For The Top So It Can Go Down / Economics / China Economy

By: OilPrice_Com

City-dwelling Chinese may still be choking on smog, but amid all the haze, China may turning a corner in its fight on pollution. Top Chinese officials have hinted at the fact that China is working hard to achieve "peak" greenhouse gas emissions, which may come sooner than observers expect.

"Peak pollution" refers to the point at which a developing country's economy reaches a high enough level of production to ensure it will continue to grow even as it begins to work on reducing pollution rates.

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