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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Chile at an Economic Crossroads / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Russell_E_Hoss

Chile's accession to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development in 2010 was more than just a confirmation that they'd earned the right to join the world's top ranked economies. As the first South American country to be accepted into the OECD, it was also a symbolic affirmation of several decades worth of market-oriented reforms that transformed the country from an illiberal backwater to what is arguably one of Latin America's most stable and thriving nations. As a result, we feel that Chile qualifies as a good choice for international investment (for other investment locales that we have our eye on, see the latest Euro Pacific Global Investor Newsletter).

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Economics

Friday, July 13, 2012

U.S. Labour Market Distortions Lead to a Sharp Drop of Initial Jobless Claims / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Initial jobless claims fell 26,000 during the week ended July 7 to 350,000. The sharp decline would be bullish if in fact it was not distorted by the July 4 holiday and fewer summer auto plant shutdowns. Typically in the summer, auto plant shutdowns and return of auto workers causes wide swings in jobless claims numbers.

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Economics

Friday, July 13, 2012

Are there suddenly signs of growth in UK retail? / Economics / Sector Analysis

By: Nick_Dockerty

Whisper it but there’s just a touch of optimism surrounding the retail sector in the UK at the moment.

The past financial year has been a difficult one for the majority of retailers but there have been just enough signs in recent company results and economic indicators that things might be picking up.

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Economics

Thursday, July 12, 2012

EU in Recession, US Entering Recession and China is Lying About Its Growth / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe emerging markets, especially China, are showing signs of a major slowdown. Indeed, recent revelations have made it clear that China’s slowdown is in fact much worse than expected:

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Economics

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Labor Market and Sales News Remains Unsatisfactory / Economics / US Economy

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThere were 3.642 million job openings in May according to the job openings and labor turnover report (JOLTS), which lags the employment report by one month. The job openings rate (number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings) moved up slightly to 2.7% in May from 2.5% in April, but matches the rate seen in March. The hiring rate (number of hires during the entire month as a percentage of total employment) at 3.3% in May has held at this level in three out of first five months of the year. Essentially, the report confirms the message from the employment report of sluggish labor market conditions.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

U.S. Already in Recession, Thinks ECRI's Achutan / Economics / Recession 2012

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, spoke with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene today and said that, "What we said back in December was that the most likely start date for the recession would be in Q1 and if not then, by the middle of 2012. I'm here to reaffirm that. I think we're in a recession already."

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Economics

Monday, July 09, 2012

Barack Obama's Presidency Economic Report Card – Fail / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWe are now three and one half years into Barack Obama's presidency. I thought a few pertinent charts would help us assess the success of his economic policies. Upon his election he demanded an $800 billion stimulus package in order to keep the unemployment rate from surpassing 8%. The $800 billion was to be spent over two years we were told and then government spending would be scaled back to pre-stimulus levels. There were 145 million Americans employed when Obama was elected. There are 9 million more working age Americans today than there were in 2008. There are now 142.4 million employed Americans. So, we've added 9 million potential workers and still have 2.6 less Americans employed. We have the same number of Americans employed as we did in early 2006, when there were 17 million less working age Americans.

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Economics

Monday, July 09, 2012

The Unseen Hand in Economic Progress / Economics / Economic Theory

By: Alasdair_Macleod

The assessment of economic growth based on Gross Domestic Product is a fallacy, because GDP is merely a measure of the amount of money in an economy. The one thing it does not measure, which is central to economic progress (note progress, not growth), is the level of entrepreneurial activity. This has important implications for the efficacy of government interventions and solutions to the current economic crisis.

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Economics

Saturday, July 07, 2012

U.S. Labour Market Stood Sill in June, Strengthens the case of FOMC Doves / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.2% in June, unchanged from May. Cycle-high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0%, registered in October 2009.

Payroll Employment: +80,000 jobs in June vs. +77,000 in May. Private sector jobs increased 84,000 after a gain of 105,000 in May. A net loss of 1,000 jobs due to revisions of non-farm payroll estimates of April and May.

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Economics

Friday, July 06, 2012

U.S. Falling into a Liquidity Trap, Leading to a Japan Style Economic Depression / Economics / US Debt

By: Brady_Willett

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCentral bank printing and excessive government borrowing are two themes that need no introduction. The U.S. consumer could become a source of stability for the financial world again (we’ll get to this). And oh how it hurts to wake up in the morning when you are old.  What follows is the cornucopia of negativity that can be unfurled when looking at the financial world today – a world that is only out-daunted by one thing: how the world will look tomorrow.

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Economics

Friday, July 06, 2012

Latest from the US Labor Market / Economics / Employment

By: Asha_Bangalore

The customary initial jobless claims report shows a reduction in jobless claims by 14,000 to 374,000 during the week ended June 30, putting the four-week moving average at 385,750. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, rose 4,000 to 3.306 million. The year commenced with initial jobless claims at 390,000 in the first week of January, the year-to-date low has been 361,000 and the latest reading is 374,000, as noted earlier. These numbers imply that there has been only a small improvement in the initial jobless claims, nothing to write home about.

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Economics

Thursday, July 05, 2012

Sorry Folks, Spain Isn’t “Saved” And The Next Leg Down is Coming Soon / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleSpain has supposedly been “saved” by a €100 billion bailout.

However, the details surrounding the source of the funding for this “bailout” still remain a mystery as there is no entity capable of providing the €100 billion in capital: neither the IMF, nor the Federal Reserve, nor the ECB have the political backing to launch a bailout of this size… and of the two EU mega-bailout funds, the EFSF and the ESM, the former can’t even raise €10 billion successfully while the latter doesn’t even exist yet.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

What Next For The Euro-Zone? / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Victoria_Marklew

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe European Union has just completed its 20th "make or break" Summit in a little over two years, and actually managed to beat expectations. Two key agreements were reached on June 28-29: expanding the remit of the two bailout funds - the temporary European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) - to include sovereign debt purchases and eventually direct banking sector support; and creating a unified banking regulator for the Euro-zone under the auspices of the European Central Bank (ECB). These apparently-small steps are actually quite far reaching. The Summit outcome also indicates that, faced with really significant risks - in this case, unsustainable funding pressures on the Spanish and Italian sovereigns - the politicians are still willing to make some of the compromises necessary to support the Euro-zone. In our opinion, this combination of muddle-through and compromise in the face of crisis will lead to a closer fiscal union over the coming years. However, we also think that the likelihood that Greece will not be a member of the Euro-zone by end-2013 has risen to over 60%.

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Economics

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Krugman's Icelandic Economic Miracle Debate, Round 2 / Economics / Economic Theory

By: EconMatters

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePaul Krugman has long been an advocate of Keynesian economics, and a proponent of aggressive and expansionary fiscal policy drawing parallels between Japan's decade-long deflation and the current Great Recession.  Krugman also has also been writing quite extensively using Iceland as the poster child on the benefits of currency devaluation.     Krugman's latest endeavor on the so-called 'Icelandic Miracle' was when he posted on his NYT blog last month with the following chart showing the seemingly much better GDP growth from Iceland compared to Ireland, Estonia, Lativa, and Lithuania, the countries either in Euro or has a currency pegged to the Euro.  He then rhetorically remarked:   

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Economics

Wednesday, July 04, 2012

Italy and Spain: Hard to Ignore Economic Facts / Economics / Euro-Zone

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe euphoria of the EU summit of June 28-29 is fading as markets comprehend that the eurozone has only bought time but not addressed the fundamental fact that economic growth is necessary to secure the future of the eurozone. In other words, economic facts are hard to ignore. First, outstanding Italian sovereign debt is in the neighborhood of €1.8 trillion and that of Spanish sovereign debt is approaching €600 billion. Therefore, the firepower of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) of €500 billion is inadequate, even if the differing maturities of these securities are taken into consideration, in the current economic environment.

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