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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Monday, December 03, 2012

The Myth of Economic Austerity / Economics / Economic Austerity

By: Philipp_Bagus

Many politicians and commentators such as Paul Krugman claim that Europe's problem is austerity, i.e., there is insufficient government spending. The common argument goes like this: Due to a reduction of government spending, there is insufficient demand in the economy leading to unemployment. The unemployment makes things even worse as aggregate demand falls even more, causing a fall in government revenues and an increase in government deficits. European governments pressured by Germany (which did not learn from the supposedly fateful policies of Chancellor Heinrich Brüning) then reduce government spending even further, lowering demand by laying off public employees and cutting back on government transfers.

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Economics

Sunday, December 02, 2012

What Is the End Game? Exponential Growth in Population, Energy and Debt / Economics / Demographics

By: DK_Matai

As Helen Keller once said, "To be blind is bad, but worse is to have eyes and not to see!"  Is the greatest shortcoming of the human race our inability to understand the exponential function?  The Earth's human population reached 1 billion in 1804, 2 billion in 1927, 3 billion in 1959, 4 billion in 1974, 5 billion in late 1986 and 6 billion in late 1999.  In late 2011, we crossed 7 billion people on this planet and we are projected to cross 8 billion in 2025. 

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Economics

Sunday, December 02, 2012

U.S. Recession 2013 100% Risks Follow On / Economics / Recession 2013

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short : Professor Piger updated his recession probability model that caused so much attention early November (See “Debunking 100% probability of recession“). As we forecast last month, the probability index undertook a “revision” of epic proportions as displayed below (01-Dec-12 vintage):

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Economics

Saturday, December 01, 2012

Is the U.S. Economy Already Beginning to Stumble Again? / Economics / Recession 2013

By: Sy_Harding

As it has in each of the last three years, the economic recovery in the U.S. stumbled this summer, prompting the Federal Reserve to provide another round of stimulus, QE3, in September.

For the last several months it seemed like it wasn’t needed, as subsequent economic reports for August and September indicated the economy was recovering nicely on its own.

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2012

Where’s Iran’s Money? / Economics / Iran

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Since I first estimated Iran’s hyperinflation last month , I have received inquiries as to why I have never so much as mentioned Iran’s money supply. That’s a good question, which comes as no surprise. After all, inflations of significant degree and duration always involve a monetary expansion.

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2012

Hyperinflation, Who's Right, Mike Shedlock 'MISH' or Peter Schiff? / Economics / HyperInflation

By: Mike_Shedlock

Peter Schiff was on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Tuesday. For that show, he was asked, and he agreed to debate me on hyperinflation. Thus, I semi-expected to be on the show as well.

I even received email confirmation from Demetri, the Capital Account producer last Sunday.

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2012

NY Fed Mortgage Debt Data Says No US Economic Recovery / Economics / US Debt

By: Raul_I_Meijer

Let me try to keep this short and still make the point I want to make. Lately, I've seen a huge amount of people talking about an economic recovery, certainly in the US, so much so that people who disagree with that assessment are labeled "doomer" or things like that. Again. It's an easy thing to do.

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2012

Turkish Economy, Is Turkey Golden? / Economics / Emerging Markets

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Recently, Moody’s Investors Service took some wind from Turkey’s sails, when it declined to upgrade Turkey’s credit rating to investment grade. Moody’s cited external imbalances, along with slowing domestic growth, as factors in its decision. This move is in sharp contrast to the one Fitch made earlier this month, when it upgraded Turkey to investment grade.   Moody’s decision not to upgrade Turkey, and its justification, left me somewhat underwhelmed – given how well the Turkish economy has done in recent years.

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Economics

Friday, November 30, 2012

In 1929, Deflation Started in Europe Before Overtaking the U.S. / Economics / Deflation

By: EWI

What Happens in Europe Will Not Stay in Europe

More than 1,500 years after the fact, scholars still debate the causes of the Roman Empire's fall.

What historians do agree on is that the crumbling empire's final days were marked by economic contraction, a struggle to fund Rome's routine affairs and excessive debt.

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Economics

Thursday, November 29, 2012

France In Big Trouble, EU Just Lost Another Prop / Economics / Eurozone Debt Crisis

By: Graham_Summers

Meanwhile, as Greece continues to distract the markets, France, the other primary prop for the EU besides Germany, is now experiencing an economic contraction on par with that of 2008-2009.

Indeed, France’s September’s auto sales numbers were worse than those of September 2008 (the month Lehman collapsed). The country’s PMI reading is back to April 2009 levels. Even the French Central Bank, which would hold off as long as possible before unveiling bad news, has announced the country will re-enter recession before year-end.

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Economics

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

The Fed’s Most Ominous Economic Indicator! / Economics / US Economy

By: Sy_Harding

Fed Chairman Bernanke has been pounding the table publicly and privately, stressing how important it is that Congress reach an agreement preventing the economy from going over the fiscal cliff at year-end. You’ve seen the numbers estimating the impact on the already anemic economy.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Economic Impact of Super-Storm Sandy and the Electoral Blues Update / Economics / US Economy

By: CMI

Earlier this month we reviewed the impact of Hurricane Sandy and the presidential election on the shopping behavior of American consumers by comparing this year's behavior with what we had observed during the 2008 election campaign. In both cases we witnessed a significant fall-off in consumer demand that was broadly coincidental with the election:

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Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Capital Formation and the Fiscal Cliff, Economic Perception Vs Reality / Economics / Economic Theory

By: John_Mauldin

In today’s economic environment, we often complain about volatility and uncertainty, but there is one thing I think we can be fairly certain of: taxes are going up. I constantly try to impress upon my kids, most of whom are now adults, that ideas and actions have consequences. In today’s letter we will look at some of the consequences of an increase in taxes. Please note that this is different from arguing whether taxes should rise or fall. For all intents and purposes that debate is over. As investors, our job is to deal with reality. We must play the hand we are dealt. Taxation is a complex issue, but let’s see if a few word pictures can help us understand what we face.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Age Of Illusionists, Focus on Government Spending and Money Supply / Economics / Money Supply

By: Steve_H_Hanke

Watching Barack Obama and Mitt Romney duel in the presidential campaign should have convinced the spectators that we live in an age of illusionists. Few of the assertions and conjectures thrown around have been subjected to what the political chattering classes deem to be the indignity of factual verification.

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Economics

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Economic Deception At The Heart Of The U.S. Fiscal Cliff / Economics / Government Spending

By: Dan_Amerman

Truth Testing The Narrative

Among many politicians and much of the media there is an accepted narrative about  deficits, taxes and the so-called "Fiscal Cliff". It goes something like the following:

"The United States is running massive deficits that are bankrupting the country.  These deficits are so high because of the Bush era tax cuts.

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