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Analysis Topic: Economic Trends Analysis

The analysis published under this topic are as follows.

Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

Lagging Economic Indicators and Nagging Debt Fundamentals / Economics / US Economy

By: Andy_Sutton

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleAfter the first weekend of the Holiday shopping season, there were jubilant members of the mainstream press virtually jumping out of their skins at the news that holiday spending was looking strong. The initial counts showed an uptick in spending and that was all the MSM needed. Interestingly at the same time, the ‘bad cops’, namely the Fed and other central banks, were quietly talking about more easing, the rotten labor market, and the debt crisis in Europe, still bubbling beneath the surface. So what gives here? Is the economy back off to the races or are we merely continuing to kick the can down the road in spite of the obviously sour fundamentals?

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Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

Of U.S. Jobs, Debts and Budgets / Economics / US Economy

By: Richard_Mills

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleConsumer confidence spiked last December. Gas prices were lower for the third straight month, a mild early winter meant that many consumers paid less to heat their houses, the auto sector posted another strong month, consumers spent more on recreation and demand for student loans increased.

Consumers seemed inclined to spend and get deeper into debt.

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Economics

Friday, February 10, 2012

U.S. Economy Better Days Ahead? / Economics / US Economy

By: Puru_Saxena

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBIG PICTURE – Over the past month, US economic data has surpassed analysts’ expectations and this positive surprise has triggered a rally on Wall Street. 

You may recall that only a few months ago, the investment community was worried about Europe and many were questioning the survival of the single currency.  During that period, investors were dumping all sorts of risky assets and capital was flowing towards the world’s reserve currency and the most liquid government bond market.  Back then, European leaders were desperately trying to find a solution to the debt crisis and policymakers were engaged in what seemed to be never ending talks! 

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Economics

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Different Measures of U.S. Unemployment, but Consistent Story is Visible / Economics / Unemployment

By: Asha_Bangalore

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe civilian unemployment rate declined to 8.3% in January from 8.5% in the prior month and is noticeably lower than the year ago reading of 9.1% (see Chart 1). The jobless rate in the Great Recession peaked at 10.0% in October 2009. The elevated unemployment after ten quarters of economic growth remains one of the top concerns of the Fed. Frequently, measures of unemployment different from the headline number are cited to drive home the message that the underlying fundamentals of the labor market are softer than what is inferred from the official rate. The aim of today’s comment is to sort out the different measures of unemployment and draw a meaningful conclusion of the status of the labor market.

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Economics

Thursday, February 09, 2012

China's Economic Rebalancing Should Be Good for Gold Demand / Economics / China Economy

By: Ben_Traynor

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe next stage of China's development could give gold buyers a boost...

THERE IS an old saying: "Nobody rings a bell at the top or bottom of a market."

Having said that, anyone reading about the stampede for gold during last month's Chinese New Year celebrations might have heard a faint ringing in their ears.

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Economics

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Illusion Of Economic Recovery – Feelings & Facts / Economics / US Economy

By: James_Quinn

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis Article"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as the final and total catastrophe of the currency involved." - Ludwig von Mises

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Economics

Monday, February 06, 2012

US Unemployment Hits 22.5% in Alternate Estimate / Economics / Economic Statistics

By: Jesse

Perhaps this chart will help explain the divergence that Charles Biderman of Trimtabs sees between the official unemployment numbers and the income tax data he has been tracking.

The difference amongst the three measures revolves around the treatment of workers who desire a real full time job, but have to either settle for a part time position and other forms of under-employment that may technically qualify as a 'job' but not as a 'living,' or who have simply been removed from the government's official attention span.

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

Look at What 'Worked' in the Great Depression / Economics / Economic Depression

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleHere is a fairly simple picture of some of the major metrics during the Great Depression. Too simple yes, but it tracks most of the major indicators.

Hoover followed a policy of 'deleveraging,' that is, allowing for the economy to liquidate its prior excesses without changing much else. The Fed did respond to this crisis by expanding the monetary base fairly significantly as you can see.

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

U.S. Economy Flatlining, Biderman on the US Non-Farm Payrolls Report / Economics / Double Dip Recession

By: Jesse

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI spend a great deal of time looking at the various government reports, and especially the Payrolls report as you know. I keep my own spreadsheets with their data, and measure various changes in the way in which they calculate the seasonal adjustment factors, imaginary jobs, and prior revisions.

If I wish to leave you with one takeway, it is that the current use of the monthly headline number is more of a Sales and PR program for Wall Street and the government, and hardly the product of serious and thoughtful analysis of statistical data.

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

U.S. ISM Economic Data Cracks Beneath The Surface / Economics / US Economy

By: Tony_Pallotta

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleI was going to discuss the payroll report this week but the highly questionable report has been somewhat "discussed to death." What has not been discussed though is the ISM data for January.

ISM is broken into two components, services and manufacturing. Interesting that services represents a larger portion of the economy yet is given less emphasis. But that is neither here nor there. Both reports came in stronger than expected with services at a 10 month high while both continue to remain above the 50 level which defines expansion (above) and contraction (below).

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

U.S. Unemployment Rate Drops, Should You Sell Gold? / Economics / Employment

By: Eric_McWhinnie

On Friday, the U.S. jobless rate dropped unexpectedly in January to 8.3 percent, the lowest level since February 2009. According to the Labor Department, the economy added 243,000 jobs. Furthermore, today’s report includes revisions adding a total of 60,000 jobs to payrolls in November and December. The Labor Department also revised December’s gains to 203,000, from an initially reported 200,000.

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Economics

Sunday, February 05, 2012

Putting Good U.S. Employment Numbers in Perspective, College Education Isn’t Enough / Economics / Employment

By: John_Mauldin

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleEveryone knows by now that the US is facing difficult choices. Depending on what assumptions you use, the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are between $50 and $80 trillion and rising. It really doesn't matter, as there is no way that much money can be found, given the current system, even under the best of assumptions. Things not only must change, they will change. Either we will make the difficult choices or those changes will be forced by the market. And the longer we put off the difficult choices, the more painful the consequences.

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Economics

Saturday, February 04, 2012

U.S. January Employment Situation Shows Widespread Improvement, but Short of Full Employment Mandate / Economics / Employment

By: Capital3X

Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleCivilian Unemployment Rate: 8.3% in January, down from 8.5% in December. Cycle high jobless rate for the recent recession is 10.0% registered in October 2009.

Payroll Employment: +243,000 jobs in January vs. +203,000 in December. Private sector jobs increased 257,000 after a gain of 220,000 in December. A net gain of 60,000 jobs followed after revisions to payroll estimates of November and December

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Economics

Friday, February 03, 2012

U.S. Jobs, El-Erian U.S. Structural Issues Aren't Being Dealt With / Economics / US Economy

By: Bloomberg

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePIMCO CEO and co-CIO Mohamed El-Erian spoke with Bloomberg Television's Betty Liu, Scarlet Fu and Dominic Chu this morning about today's jobs report and the global economy.

On jobs, El-Erian said that "let's not also forget the numbers outside these headlines...we should not lose sight that we have structural issues that are not being dealt with."

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Economics

Friday, February 03, 2012

What Every U.S. Investor Should Know About Inflation / Economics / Inflation

By: Tony_Caldaro

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe Department of Labor publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) every month to monitor the inflation rate in the US. The chart below displays the annual rate of change, month to month, of the CPI in the Greenspan/Bernanke era. As you can observe it has averaged about 2.5%.

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