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Category: UK General Election

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

ElectionOracle

Thursday, March 05, 2015

UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Immigration Crisis, SNP Insurgency and Housing Mini-Boom / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Answering who will win the 2015 UK General Election.

Find out what the impact will be of the SNP insurgency determined to disintegrate the United Kingdom, Liberal Democrats meltdown following betray of solemn pledges (tuition fees), UKIP profiting from continuing out of control immigration, unemployment falling to a 6 year low, and the housing market sentiment driven mini-economic boom as this analysis concludes in a detailed UK general election seats per party forecast including who will form the next UK government.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, February 28, 2015

UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

This analysis continues from Part 1 (UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others) that forecast the probable seats for the UK's minor parties. This article (Part 2) concludes by forecasting the probable seats for the Labour and Conservative parties, and which is most likely to form the next government.

UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015

A recently published report by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election result.

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ElectionOracle

Saturday, February 28, 2015

UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Britain's political parties are all ramping their frenzy of activity in the run up to the May 7th General Election with a string of bribes being announced virtually every other day as the parties fire their free money missiles at targeted potential voters, such as the Tories bribing pensioners with a interest rate busting 4% NS&I £15k bond at a subsidised cost to the tax payer of at least £1.2 billion. Whilst the opposition Labour party firing back by aiming at student voters with the announcement of a £10 billion bribe to cut tuition fees for £9k to £6k per year AND to bung students an extra £400 annual allowance, a tuition fees promise that Labour will likely break just as they had broken their 1997 promise NOT to introduce tuition fees in the first place which Labour subsequently did.

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ElectionOracle

Friday, February 27, 2015

UK House Prices Trend 2015 and the May General Election / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

For Britain the most critical economic driver, far beyond interest rates, inflation, or even unemployment is the trend in average house prices for the fundamental reason that positive housing market SENTIMENT IS that which makes the all difference between the UK economy being in recession or in an common boom, as you don't tend to get one without the other. Which any government of the day fully realises and why the Coalition government has literally bent over backwards to first ignite and then to target maintaining a house prices bull market right into the May 2015 General Election through a myriad of tax payer funded schemes such as ZERO interest rates, the Help to Buy Scheme, Stamp duty cut and a continuous flood of liquidity forcing savers to spend or invest depreciating value of bank deposits into primarily bricks and mortar as I have covered at length for several years -

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Liberal Democrat Election Blood Bath - Could Nick Clegg Lose Sheffield Hallam? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

If the opinion polls are to believed then the Liberal Democrats are literally facing an election blood bath, a wipeout that could see the Lib-Dems lose more than half their MP's, falling from a major third party coalition forming tally of 56 ( already having lost 1 MP along the way) to as few as just 20 as according to Lord Ashcroft's detailed constituency level polling, and no more than 26 according to the current most favourable projections which would mean no more limousine rides for Nick Clegg & co!

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ElectionOracle

Friday, February 20, 2015

UK Political Party Funding Suggests Another ConLib General Election Outcome 2015 / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A report published by the Electoral Commission details fund raising by all of the major political parties for 2014, and allowing for expectations for a similar trend into the May 2015 general election means that significant differences in the funding of major parties election campaigns could result in a significant impact in this years too close to call probable hung parliament election.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, February 16, 2015

SNP-Syriza Labour Coalition Government Election Catastrophe, Debt Binge Before Breakup / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Last September the UK had a close call with catastrophe as the tunnel vision SNP failed in their efforts for UK disintegration that would have resulted in a catastrophic breakup of Britain and far worse for Scotland that would literally have started to unravel politically, economically and socially as Scotland itself would soon start to disintegrate as I warned in the run up to the referendum vote. Of course Scotland voted NO, for most Scots are not insane, though succeeded in having the fools in Westminister conned into making promises to increase the annual bribe to Scotland from mostly English tax payers.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, February 08, 2015

UK Government Extends 4% Pensioner Bonds Grey Vote Bribe to Election Day / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne today announced that the Collation government is extending the Over 65 4% Pensioner Bonds Tory election bribe for 3 months, all the way to election day. The original tranche was for £10 billion that has all but been consumed by yield starved cash rich pensioners with today's news likely to allow for a further £10-£15 billion of election bribe bonds to be sold over the next 3 months at an additional cost to the Tax payer of a least £700 million bringing the Pensioner bond election bribe total to at least £1.2 billion in terms of free money for pensioners.

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ElectionOracle

Monday, October 06, 2014

UK General Election Forecast 2015 - Cameron Tory Tax Cut Fact Check / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The big election bribe news out of the recent party conferences was David Cameron's promise / voter bribe to substantially raise both the starting and higher rate tax bands that the mainstream media uniformly costed at £7 billion to be added to Britain’s black hole (budget deficit of £95 billion per year).

I can tell you now that a future Conservative Government will raise the tax-free personal allowance from £10,500 to £12,500.

That will take 1 million more of the lowest paid workers out of income tax – and will give a tax cut to 30 million more.

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ElectionOracle

Sunday, May 25, 2014

Britain's Zombie Marginal Democracy to Deliver Labour General Election 70 Seat Majority? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The housing market is booming and the economy within a matter of months will have recouped the whole of the loss of the last Labour governments catastrophic drop in GDP of over 7%, the worst since the 1930's Great Depression. But still there has yet to be any feed back towards an improvement in Tory general election prospects as illustrated by the local election results that show that the Conservatives currently stand in a far worse state than where they were at the start of the Coalition government as the surge in UKIP votes claims seven Tory votes for every one Labour vote taken.

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Politics

Monday, January 06, 2014

UK General Election Results Forecast May 2015 - Video / Politics / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

George Osborne has finally succeeded in sparking a debt fuelled housing market led economic recovery that looks set to gain momentum all the way into the May 2015 General Election. This video is based on recent in-depth analysis and detailed concluding multi-year trend forecast for UK house prices and the implications of in terms of the outcome of the next General Election.

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Politics

Monday, December 16, 2013

UK General Election Forecast 2015, Who Will Win, Coalition, Conservative or Labour? / Politics / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Recent opinion polls put Labour 6 points ahead of the Conservatives which would translate into Labour winning an general election with a 74 seat majority (Independant on Sunday). Similarly the bookies also have Labour (oddschecker) as hot favourites to win the most seats at the May 2015 general election, though the odds marginally favour another hung parliament, whilst the Conservatives trail a distant third in their chances for an outright election win. However, what the opinion pollsters, bookies and the mainstream media commentators fail to grasp is the likely impact of accelerating UK housing market momentum on an general election that is still 18 months away (May 2015).

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

How the British Election Could Supercharge the UK Economy / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Money_Morning

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleMartin Hutchinson writes: In the depths of the Depression-ridden 1930s, two years after a British General Election that yielded a "hung parliament" - came the formation of a coalition government that resulted in one of the strongest decades the British economy has ever enjoyed.

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ElectionOracle

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Gordon Brown Mission Accomplished, Labour General Election Plan a Magnificent Success / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleGordon Brown Mission Accomplished as he leaves office by delivering a bankrupt scorched earth UK economy to a weak Conservative / Liberal Democrat coalition government that will sooner or later rip itself apart in the face of deep rooted ideological differences between the two which sows the seeds for a series of landslide Labour election victories possibly as soon as 2012 despite talk of an agreed fixed 5 year term.

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ElectionOracle

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Prime Minister Gordon Brown Stepping Down; What's it Mean to the British Pound? / ElectionOracle / UK General Election

By: Mike_Shedlock

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIt seems like ages ago yet it was only yesterday when I said Good Riddance to "Clown" Brown

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