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Category: US Bonds

The analysis published under this category are as follows.

Interest-Rates

Monday, April 06, 2015

3 Sigma Extremes In the U.S. Treasury Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DeviantInvestor

US T-Bond futures closed Friday, March 27 up nearly 12% from the February close.  That was the 3rd largest monthly percent move since 1977 when my data begins and created a 3.61 standard deviation change.  This is a huge move.  What does it mean?

The US T-Bond market peaked on March 25 at an all-time high over 165, up from about 75 in 1990.  Bonds move inversely with yields, so yields have dropped to their lowest level ever.  This is not surprising because central banks have been monetizing sovereign debt, buying bonds, and supporting the bond and stock markets.  Several $Trillion in European sovereign debt currently “pays” negative interest – an extreme condition.  The Bank of Japan has aggressively purchased Japanese government bonds as well as Japanese stocks – another extreme example of a bond bubble.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

Watch As All the Bond Market Rats Jump Ship before FOMC Meeting / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Short-Term Market Flipping

Markets are just hilarious these days, there is no meaningful investments in the era of High Frequency Trading, Spoofing Algos, Pump & Dump IPO Schemes and ZIRP free money to borrow at the drop of a hat.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, March 13, 2015

The Crazy Man's Guide to the U.S.Bond Market / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: John_Mauldin

I invite you to inspect the following chart of 10-year interest rates in the US.

If you don’t have a lot of experience with these things, let me clue you in: This is a very scary-looking chart. It’s a classic head-and-shoulders bottom in yields.

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Interest-Rates

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Six Days Until U.S. Bond Market Crash Begins / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Run for the Exits
Early on Tuesday morning, realizing this was going to be a robust selloff in equities, the ‘smart money’, i.e., the big banks, investments banks, hedge funds and the like, ran to the old staple of buying bonds hand over fist with little regard for the yield they are getting paid for stepping in front of the freight train of rate rises coming down the tracks.

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Interest-Rates

Monday, March 09, 2015

U.S. 30 Year US T-Bonds Price Forecast / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Austin_Galt

There has been quite a bit of chatter recently about interest rates in the US with many proclaiming interest rates are now headed up. Are these voices right? Having just analysed the technicals of the 30 Year US Treasury Bonds, it is my considered opinion that they are both right and wrong.

Keeping in mind that interest rates go up as bond prices go down, let’s investigate the price charts and we’ll mix it up by starting with the monthly chart first.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 14, 2015

U.S. Treasury Long Bond Breakdown / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

Well, here we go again. I do not know how many times over the past year or so I have noted what looked like a chart breakdown in the US long bond. By that I specifically mean a close BELOW the 50 day moving average. Generally, that will get technicians to sit up and take notice and begin to approach a market from the short side. Each time I have noted this however, the bonds have done a flip-a-roo and back up they have gone continuing the bull streak.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 07, 2015

The Party Is Likely Over for U.S. Treasury Bonds / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Sy_Harding

U.S. treasury bonds defied the experts last year.

The consensus was that once the Fed began dialing back its massive bond-buying stimulus program last January, bond prices would have to begin plunging. With the stock market so clearly in an ongoing bull market, why would anyone but the Fed buy bonds with their yields at record lows, providing almost no income? The lack of interest in bonds was obvious from their plunge in 2013 even when the Fed was aggressively engaged in its QE bond buying.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, February 07, 2015

U.S. Treasury Bond Yields Soaring ... But not for long / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

It’s time to rethink my outlook (Elliott Wave structure) in Treasuries. I had been concerned that the decline in TNX fell short of my projections. Then it hit me as I was writing about XJY and how high it might go in a panic stock decline. With gold out of the picture, it appears that the only other major asset that might be viewed as a safe haven would be US Treasuries. You can see that I have changed the Elliott Wave structure to reflect that view.

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Interest-Rates

Saturday, January 31, 2015

U.S. Bond Market Has Reached Tulip Bubble Proportions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Fed Officials Trying to Send Signals to the Bond Market

James Bullard on Friday noted that the Bond Market was far too dovish in relation to where the Fed is in regard to raising rates in June, and this might be the understatement of the year so far. For example the U.S. 2-Year Bond Yield is 0.45 or 45 basis points, think about this for a moment. Even if the Fed fund`s rate finishes the year at 50 basis points which is well below the Fed`s most conservative forecasts, and we use a conservative annual inflation rate of 1% (I know oil has dropped but there are more inflation categories than just the energy component). Moreover, the overall annual inflation rate is well above 1% right now, and you factor in that this bond is paying a 2-year risk premium for tying up one`s capital with all kinds of inflation risks over that 2-year time frame, this has to be the stupidest investment of all time.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Why 2014's Big Investing Winner Is Still Winning in 2015 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: DailyWealth

Brett Eversole writes: The BIG winner of 2014 will likely surprise you.

U.S. stocks increased a strong 14% last year. But another, much less interesting, asset crushed stocks. It soared 27%. And still, no one is paying attention.

This same boring asset is up 7% so far this year. And last year's big gains could continue throughout 2015.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, January 11, 2015

U.S. Treasury Bonds Elliott Wave Long View / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Unfortunately, this chart doesn’t go back prior to 1990, but there are clues that tell me where we are in the Elliott Wave structure. Wave III, for example, is exactly 12.9 years long. It is followed by a Triangle Wave IV, which is 3.87 years long.

Wave V is nearing an end. It is trading in a very straight trading channel. (It looks managed, don’t you think?) It is highly probable that the end of the T-bond uptrend may get a little help from a decline in equities. If so, a peak between the end of April and mid-May in bonds may correspond very neatly with the next potential bottom in the SPX. In other Words, the “flow” will be out of stocks and into bonds.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

U.S. Treasury Bond Bull Market Refuses to Die / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Dan_Norcini

Call this the market that simply will not die. As mentioned in some previous posts, just about the time one thinks that this market is finally ready to turn lower marking the onset of the end of the ultra-low long term interest rates and the inception of the new trend towards higher rates, back up it goes and down go the rates.

Between US investors seeking safe havens due to slowing growth and falling crude oil prices, and foreign investors looking for higher yielding alternatives to their own government bonds, ( which pay next to nothing not to mention the currency risk that they are exposed to thanks to the soaring US Dollar), bond bears haven't a chance in here.

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Interest-Rates

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

U.S. Bond Market Bubble is Reaching Epic Proportions / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

The 10-Year Bond now has a Yield of 2.08% right before the all-important Fed Quarterly Meeting and Press Conference this Wednesday, the 10-Year basically lost 24 basis points in a week, and mind you the week right after the strongest Employment Report (a positive 321,000 jobs added for the month) since the Financial Crisis, capping what has been a remarkable year in added jobs to the US economy, even wages spiked 0.4 % with strong upward employment revisions for the prior months. In short, in a normal functioning Bond Market Yields should be rising with improved economic conditions. Especially in a week with a robust Retail Sales Report up 0.7 % for the month. Bond Yields in the US should be much higher given the strong economic performance for 2014, and the Fed not only exiting QE, but about to start raising rates in 2015.

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Interest-Rates

Sunday, October 12, 2014

The 5–Year U.S. Treasury Bond is Emblematic of Careless Risk Taking in Bond Markets / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: EconMatters

Dovishness Begets Excessive Risk Taking by Speculators

The Fed minutes came out this past week and they mentioned the strong dollar and less than stellar growth out of Europe, basically more over the top dovishness which just encouraged more unwise risk taking in the bond markets. This week Dallas Fed's Fisher said that they have identified areas of risk in markets, and James Bullard has said on several occasions that the markets are even behind the most dovish participants at the Federal Reserve regarding the forecasts for rate hikes, and the actual market actions of participants.

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Interest-Rates

Friday, October 03, 2014

U.S. Bond Market Fourth Quarter Trade of 2014 / Interest-Rates / US Bonds

By: Chris_Vermeulen

If you have been paying close attention to the stock market, market internals/breadth, and bonds for the past three months, you’ve likely come to the same conclusion that I have.

The US stock market is showing signs of severe weakness with the market breadth and leading indicators pointing to a sharp correction for stock prices.

With fewer stocks trading above their 50 and 200 day moving averages each week, while the broad market S&P 500 index continues to rising, this bearish divergence is a red flag for long term investors.

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