Best of the Week
Most Popular
1.Gold Price Crash Through Key Support, Crude Oil in Freefall - Clive_Maund
2.Marc Faber Warns Japan's Bond-Buying Program is a Ponzi Scheme - Bloomberg
3.Silver Price and Powerful Forces - DeviantInvestor
4.Stocks Bear Market Catastrophe as Stocks Flash Crash to New All Time Highs - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Marc Faber Warns Not to Hold Any Gold in the U.S. - GoldCore
6.U.S. Housing Market San Francisco at Critical Mass - Harry_Dent
7.Global Scramble For Silver - Coins “Hard To Get,” “Premiums Likely To Jump” - GoldCore
8.Major World Stock Market Indices Analysis: SPY, QQQ, DAX, FTSE, CAC, HSI - Michael_Noonan
9.Japan's kaput?! - Axel_Merk
10.Tesco Empire Strikes Back, £5 off £40 Discount Voucher Spend Explained, Exclusions Warning! - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 5 days
Currency Wars, the Ruble and Keynes - 21st Nov 14
Stock Market Investor Sentiment in The Balance - 21st Nov 14
Two Biotech Stocks Set to Double on One Powerful Catalyst - 21st Nov 14
Swiss Gold Poll Likely Tighter Than Polls Suggest - 21st Nov 14
Gold's Volatility and Other Things to Watch - 21st Nov 14
Australia Stock Market and AUD Dollar Analysis (ASX200 and AUDUSD) - 21st Nov 14
New Algae Research May Have Uncovered an “Energy Forest” Under the Sea - 21st Nov 14
The Cultural and Political Consequences of Fiat Money - 20th Nov 14
United States Social Crisis - No One Told You When to Run, You Missed the Starting Gun! - 20th Nov 14
Euro-Zone Tooth Fairy Economics, Spain Needs to leave the Euro - 20th Nov 14
Ebola Threat Remains a Risk - New Deaths in Nebraska and New York - 20th Nov 14
Stock Market and the Jaws of Life or Death? - 20th Nov 14
Putin’s World: Why Russia’s Showdown with the West Will Worsen - 20th Nov 14
Making Money While The World Burns - 20th Nov 14
Why This "Quiet Zone" Is Now Tech Stocks Biggest Profit Sector - 20th Nov 14
My Favorite Stock McDonalds Just Got Kicked Off My “Buy” List - 19th Nov 14
European Economies in Perpetual State of Shock, What's Scarier Than Deflation? - 19th Nov 14
Breakfast with a Lord of War and Nuclear Weapons - 19th Nov 14
The U.S. Economy’s Ebb and Flow - 19th Nov 14
What You Need to Know Before Investing in Alibaba - 19th Nov 14
Forget About Crude Oil Price Testing 2009 Low - 19th Nov 14
What Blows Up First? Part 5: Shale Oil Junk Bonds - 19th Nov 14
Bitcoin Price Did We Just See an Important Slump? - 18th Nov 14
How to Profit From Oversold Crude Oil Price - 18th Nov 14
Stock Valuations Outrunning Profits Growth - And the Band Played On - 18th Nov 14
ECB Buy Gold Bullion? Japan's Monetary Policy Dubbed "Ponzi Scheme" - 18th Nov 14
Gold, Silver, Crude and S&P Ending Wedge Patterns - 18th Nov 14
How High Could USD/JPY Go? - 18th Nov 14
On Obama and the Nature of Failed Presidencies - 18th Nov 14
Globalism Free Trade Immigration Connection - 18th Nov 14
An Epiphany From Hell - Buy Gold and Silver - 18th Nov 14
Too Difficult to Get a U.S. Home Loan - 18th Nov 14
Has the Gold Bear Trap Been Set - 18th Nov 14
Gold Price and Miners Soar on Huge Volume - 17th Nov 14
Cameron Says Second Global Economic Crash is Loomin, Japan in Recession - 17th Nov 14
How to Play the Stock Market 2014 Year-End Rally - 17th Nov 14
What The Fed Has Wrought, Who Needs Wage Earners Anyway? - 17th Nov 14
Stock Market Indexes Fluctuate Along Record Levels - Will Uptrend Continue? - 17th Nov 14
Stock Market Trend Deceleration Tends To Precede Corrections - 17th Nov 14
Stocks Bull Market Set to Continue After Consolidation - 17th Nov 14
The World Is Run By Fools, And We Let Them - 17th Nov 14
Gold Price Golden Bottom? - 17th Nov 14
Gold Dragons Grand Strategy - 16th Nov 14
Gold and Silver 2015 Trend Forecasts, Prices to Go BOOM - 16th Nov 14
Stocks Bull Market Grinds Bears into Dust, Is Santa Rally Sustainable? - 16th Nov 14

Free Instant Analysis

Free Instant Technical Analysis


Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Dramatic Stock Market Selloff

When This Indicator Says to ‘Buy Gold,’ It’s Never Wrong

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Jul 20, 2010 - 05:27 AM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePeter Krauth writes: When I recently predicted that the long-term trends were in place to send gold to $5,000 an ounce, I was stunned by all the attention that my forecast received.

Granted, a move of that magnitude represents a dizzying long-term profit opportunity. But that's just it - it's a long-term profit opportunity.


I've uncovered some profit plays that offer equally hefty gains - but in the short term.

One in particular stands out - a profit opportunity that relates to a signal that I refer to as the "Gold Spike Indicator," or GSI. Because of the nature of the indicator itself, this profit opportunity is available only four times a year.

And the next "window" of opportunity is just weeks away.

Near-Term Profits Hidden Within Long-Term Gains
Gold has posted some solid gains over the past decade, zooming from about $250 an ounce in June of 2000 to an all-time record of $1,260 an ounce earlier this summer, before trading down to the current level of about $1,160. That zooming long-term surge in the yellow metal has some pundits shouting "bubble."

My advice: Don't listen.

In fact, I've got two good reasons investors should ignore these doomsayers.

First of all, from a long-term standpoint, one of the first signs of a bubble is a parabolic rise in price - a short-term spike that's clearly visible on a long-term chart. The more-recent bubbles are fairly easy to spot: Just think about the Nasdaq Composite Index in 1999-2000 and U.S. housing prices from 1997 to 2003.

The accompanying chart of gold prices over the past decade illustrates this very well: One look underscores that there's been no such short-term price spike.

But the second reason is even more dramatic: The near-term profit story may be even more dramatic than the long-term opportunity - thanks, believe it or not, to the global financial crisis.

As an aftermath of that worldwide financial mess - currently manifesting itself as an inflation-fueling debt overhang - several of the leading investment banks reconstituted themselves as "bank holding companies."

This is where the near-term profit story for gold gets quite interesting.

The "Gold Spike Indicator"

You see, while firms such as Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) may now be officially characterized as bank holding companies, they can't ignore their investment-banking DNA. And that means that Goldman and Morgan remain major traders of - and holders of - such commodities as oil... and gold.

As bank holding companies, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and other firms in similar circumstances are required by law to make quarterly disclosures on their holdings - including commodities. And my research shows that there's a certain "window" during this disclosure period during which some of those commodities can make some pretty hefty price moves.

Gold is one of the commodities that's worth watching.

In each of the last six quarters, in fact, this indicator has signaled - to the day - the optimal time to buy gold.

How do I use that information? There's an old investing adage that says: "The best place to look for gold is in a gold mine."

While some traders use futures or options to play the commodity markets, I prefer to keep my strategies simple: I like to go directly to the source - I believe the shares of the companies that get the gold out of the ground offer the biggest payoffs at the lowest levels of risk.

If you really think about it, this strategy makes the most sense: Investors stand to maximize their profits when they buy into a well-run company that controls sizeable amounts of a rare mineral that happens to be one of the world's most-sought-after natural resources.

That means it's time to buy gold-mining stocks. But only certain ones.

Right now, for instance, I'm looking at a junior-metals player with a resource estimate in the millions of ounces. At current prices, its gold holdings are worth roughly $2.5 billion. If gold were to hit $1,425 an ounce next year, as Goldman Sachs predicts, these holdings would be worth more than $3 billion.

And I've publicly predicted that gold could hit $1,500 an ounce by late this year or early next year.

What makes this company especially intriguing is the fact that there are two neat wildcards at play here.

First, the company's resource estimate may be low. There's a lot of interest in its latest drilling results. A "new" estimate could be announced at any time.

Second, there's a relationship between the indicator and the company's stock price. The last time the GSI was available - remember, it's only available four times a year - this stock zoomed 21% in just a few days.

Vigilance Pays

In that afore-mentioned Money Morning report back in January, I said that I expected gold to eventually reach the $5,000 level. My "gold superspike" prediction got quite a bit of attention. So let me say this: I haven't changed my mind - I've grown even more confident in my forecast. It will take some time for this price point to be achieved, but the long-term catalysts I outlined remain in place

If there's a takeway message here, it's this: When it comes to gold, by all means invest for the long-term.

But don't ignore the short term.

The huge level of debt the United States has taken on as a result of this financial crisis is a long-term positive for gold. All that debt is highly inflationary.

And I continue to believe that gold prices could reach $1,500 by the end of the year. On a straight gold play alone, that would make for a tidy 29% gain from recent price levels.

My short-term target is actually becoming more realistic by the day, given the growing lack of confidence that exists in the U.S. government's ability to arrest the nation's financial slide.

This particular "wall of worry" will be very good for near-term gold prices.

That's a short-term catalyst that no shrewd investor can afford to ignore.

[Editor's Note: Peter Krauth, a frequent contributor to Money Morning, is the editor of the Global Resource Alert, a private advisory service that focuses on precious metals, energy resources and other natural-resource-related commodities. Krauth spent two decades as a market analyst and portfolio advisor, and has covered all the commodities sectors, including gold, silver, coal, alternative energy and agriculture.

All that research led Krauth to the discovery of the "Gold Spike Indicator," or GSI, which signals the near-term direction of key commodity prices, including gold.

However, because it's tied to quarterly disclosure data, the GSI is available only four times a year, meaning it offers investors only a short time to act. Investors who wish to find out more before this "profit window" closes should click here for more information.]

Source :http://moneymorning.com/2010/07/20/gold-7/

Money Morning/The Money Map Report

©2010 Monument Street Publishing. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Monument Street Publishing. 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore MD 21201, Email: customerservice@moneymorning.com

Disclaimer: Nothing published by Money Morning should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investent advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication, or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Money Morning should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Money Morning Archive

© 2005-2014 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

Free Report - Financial Markets 2014